Monday, July 14, 2008

Drama is one certainty for Malaysian political scene

Drama is one certainty for Malaysian political scene
The Vancouver Sun

JULY 15 — In an effort to stem a rising tide of political chaos and economic uncertainty since his poor showing in March elections, embattled Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi announced late last week he will step down in two years’ time.

Abdullah told regional organisers of Umno, which dominates the Barisan Nasional coalition that has ruled Malaysia since independence from Britain 51 years ago, that he will hand over to his deputy Datuk Seri Najib Razak.

"I have reached agreement with my deputy that I will not lead the party and the Barisan Nasional into the next general election" due in 2013, Abdullah said.

But there are grave doubts whether Abdullah retains enough political authority five years after he took over the premiership and party leadership to be able to dictate this timetable.

Umno is riven by factional in-fighting with some potential leaders and their followers wanting Abdullah ousted at the party convention in December if not sooner.

Chief among the contenders are perennial leadership contender Kelantan state prince Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah and International Trade and Industries Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

Demands for Abdullah's swift removal stem from Umno's deplorable showing in March elections when it logged the worst results since 1957 and lost legislative power in four states to opposition parties.

Snorting from the sidelines is the domineering presence of former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who handed over the party and national leadership to Abdullah in 2003. But Dr Mahathir quickly became disillusioned with his protégé, concluded that his legacy is not in safe hands, and has mounted a very public and vitriolic campaign against him in recent months.

Meanwhile another stellar figure from Malaysia's past, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, has made an astonishing comeback after years in the political wilderness. He believes his PKR party will soon get enough defectors from the ruling BN coalition to have a majority in Parliament and the right to form a government.

But politics in Malaysia is seldom a simple matter of counting votes.

Swirling around the whole question of the length of Abdullah's political survival and the succession is a torrid maelstrom of allegations of sexual impropriety, corruption and murder.

There have been questions for several months over whether Abdullah's chosen successor, Najib, is fit to take over the leadership.

At the heart of this question is a continuing court case over the murder of a Mongolian woman translator, Altantuya Shaariibuu, the mistress of one of Najib's policy advisers Abdul Razak Baginda.

The Mongolian woman was allegedly murdered by two of Najib's wife's bodyguards after she appeared outside Abdul Razak's house in Kuala Lumpur loudly demanding that she be properly recompensed for his pleasure.

There have been further allegations, vehemently denied by Najib, that he had his own intimate relationship with Shaariibuu and that the woman had been promised US$500,000 (RM1.65 million) to assist in the purchase of submarines from France.

The nature of her alleged services has not been specified.

These allegations were made by opposition leader Anwar last week, coupled with a demand that a full public inquiry be launched into Najib's involvement in the Shaariibuu affair.

Retribution was not long in coming. By mid-week allegations had been made by Umno officials that Anwar had committed sodomy — illegal in Malaysia — with a member of his staff.

Anwar dismissed the story as "pure lies" and said it was the same kind of fabrication that was used to discredit him in 1998.

Anwar had been Dr Mahathir's deputy and finance minister, but the two fell out over how to respond to the Asian economic crisis of 1997.

Anwar launched his own political campaign, claiming Dr Mahathir operated in a climate of corruption and cronyism.

Dr Mahathir responded by backing trumped-up charges of sodomy and corruption against Anwar, who was convicted and sentenced to prison.

It was only after Dr Mahathir resigned that a court in 2004 overturned the conviction as being without substance and freed Anwar.

But memories of betrayal and disloyalty are long in Malaysia and there remain many Dr Mahathir supporters passionately determined that Anwar will never be prime minister.

So the only thing that can be said now with any confidence is that political life in Malaysia in the coming months is going to be full of drama and will test the capacity of supermarket tabloid magazines to report events.

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