Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Amid Malaysia's Sensational Political Drama, Anwar Has Momentum for Now

Amid Malaysia's Sensational Political Drama, Anwar Has Momentum for Now
10 July, 2008

Luke Hunt, World Politics Review

In the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur July 6, 20,000 supporters of former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim braved a police ban to rally in support of the opposition leader, who has been charged with sodomy on the basis of allegations lodged by a 23-year-old former male aide. Anwar claims the charges are baseless, an attempt by the ruling party to thwart his political ambitions.

Anwar supporters chanted "PM resign" as protesters arrived at a suburban sports stadium. The political turmoil erupted at elections earlier this year amid claims by Anwar that he was poised to oust the government of Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi.

"I vow we will fight and struggle until the Pakatan Rakyat becomes the next government of Malaysia," Anwar said at the rally, according to dispatches, in reference to his three-party opposition alliance. "The people are desperate but the government is happy."

Security was tight throughout the day and there were no reports of violence. However, some objections were lodged after a rock singer bared his behind while performing on stage.

It was just the latest turn of events in a remarkable comeback for Anwar, whose resurrection from the political abyss and talk about his leadership prospects have sent government boffins scurrying, nostalgic for the days of Mahathir Mohammad, who once ruled virtually unchallenged.

Anwar has skillfully rebuilt his public life since he was released from jail in July 2004 after serving a six-year sentence for corruption and sodomy. The latter charge was ultimately dropped, thus the widespread sense of disbelief surrounding the latest allegations.

Those who have known Anwar since his days at university credit the 60-year-old with a personal savvy that helped win him a broad support base he would carry with him through later political life, and a toughness that helped him survive beatings, a six-year jail term and more than a decade in the political wilderness.

"On campus he was like a chameleon, he had a way of appeasing everybody. One minute he was addressing and winning the hearts of Islamic radicals, the next minute he was working on the much-more-moderates and winning them over too. The problem is, we never quite knew what he actually stood for," one former student told World Politics Review.

Now he's back, hollering louder than ever and leaving no doubt where he stands, accusing Prime Minister Abdullah of corruption, incompetence, and moral bankruptcy, and threatening to tip the ruling National Front out of office.

Even the latest allegations of sodomy -- a criminal offense in mostly-Muslim Malaysia -- made by the former aid in late June, have failed to dampen his push for the top job.

The charges prompted Anwar to seek sanctuary in the Turkish embassy, saying he feared for his life. He says the accusations never happened, while observers say they may only have added further fuel to the bonfire he hopes to light.

Anwar told the recent rally: "Believe me, what was alleged 10 years ago is being repeated with malice and slander, and I will not accept this but will fight it to the end."

According to the latest opinion polls most Malays believe him.

One survey by the news Web site Malayskini found 94.4 percent of respondents believed the allegations were politically motivated. Another by the Merdeka Centre was less emphatic, with 60 percent believing the charges were politically motivated. But the same poll found just 6 percent of people surveyed believed the sodomy allegations were true.

Anwar supporters have always claimed the trials of a decade ago were politically motivated after Mahathir sacked Ibrahim as his deputy at the height of the Asian financial crisis.

Next Page: A falling out with Mahathir . . .


Anwar had been vocal in his support for reform, or reformasi, and claimed that corruption stretched through the upper echelons of government. The reformist spirit resulted in his falling out of favor with Mahathir, the man he once seemed destined to replace as leader of United Malay National Organisation (UMNO) and prime minister of the country.

Ten years later and Mahathir has gone, although he too has become a scathing critic of Abdullah.

Anwar's comeback took off during elections four months ago, when the National Front -- led by the UMNO -- suffered badly at the March 8 polls. The ruling coalition lost its two-thirds majority in the 222-seat parliament and control of five state governments. It was the worst performance since independence in 1957.

The drubbing had led to calls for Abdullah to resign, even though his government still holds an overwhelming majority, and to Anwar claiming he had enough clout to prompt defections within the UMNO ranks and bring down the government.

A loose coalition of opposition parties, the People's Alliance, headed by Anwar, has 82 seats and needs 30 defections before a new government can be formed. It's a tall order and the battleground has shifted from the streets of Kuala Lumpur and the Malaysian peninsula to the 42 seats representing the eastern states of Sabah and Sarawak on the island of Borneo.

It's there that Malaysia's economic problems are most actutely felt.

Like many developing countries, Malaysia has heavily subsidized the cost of fuel and is now hemorrhaging cash as the cost of crude continues to hit record highs.

Efforts to rein in government spending are hurting the poor even more. In June alone, the price of fuel soared 41 percent, and many poor Malays in the country's east feel they have been largely ignored by national politicians.

The area is rich in gas and oil deposits, and Anwar has offered state governments a 20 percent share of royalties compared with the 5 percent they currently receive. The government has partly responded by lowering the cost of cooking gas, and observers see a bidding war emerging for political support of the region.

It is among the ranks of politicians from the east that Anwar may have secretly negotiated the defections his coalition would need to capture power. But for the moment, he's not saying who among the ruling coalition has promised to join him.

Anger over energy prices was evident at the stadium Sunday, where the protest was billed as an "anti-inflation rally" and many demonstrators wore bandanas emblazoned with the words "No Price Hike."

While energy costs are galvanizing opposition to the ruling party, backroom political dramas involving sensational allegations of murder by a potential successor to Abdullah, deputy premier Najib Razak, have also gripped the nation and are not doing UMNO any favors.

A private investigator, Balasubramaniam Perumal, has linked Najib to a Mongolian woman, a model who was murdered in 2006. Najib's friend has been charged with abetting the murder.

During a press conference last week organized by Anwar, Balasubramaniam claimed in a sworn statement he had given police critical information that was never raised at the trial for the murder of Altantuya Shaaribuu. Najib has angrily denied ever meeting the woman.

A day later, Balasubramaniam retracted his claims, saying he had made them under duress. Later, the nephew of Balasubramaniam filed a missing person's report, saying his uncle and family were missing. International help has been sought by Interpol.

Amid all the legal and political drama, it appears for now that Anwar has the momentum. But whether he has the numbers to topple Badawi and Najib only he and time can tell.


Luke Hunt is a Hong Kong-based Australian journalist and a regular World Politics Review contributor.

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