By Liew Chin Tong
JULY 12 – At first glance, it looks like the beginning of the end for Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.
But it may turn out to be the beginning of an unbridled Abdullah era, and the end of the road for veteran Umno politicians such as Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah and Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.
The transition plan may even neutralise the influence of other long-time political players, especially that of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. And, only time can tell whether the anointed successor Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak would have the last laugh.
Unlike other power brokers in Umno, Abdullah does not have a well-oiled political machine to call his own. He survives in politics mainly by not creating too many enemies – earning him the nickname of Mr Nice Guy – and having a reputation of being incorruptible, thus once a Mr Clean.
After ascending to power, Abdullah has had to deal with numerous Umno warlords who had no qualms in derailing his already limited reform promises. Of course, Abdullah's uninspiring leadership has made it worse.
For an Umno president who has led the party into unprecedented defeat, the retirement plan was a pretty good deal for Abdullah. The embattled Prime Minister bought himself 2 years to restore his place in Malaysia's history.
Realistically, it is untenable for Abdullah to lead the party into the next general election. Tunku Abdul Rahman and Dr Mahathir had to leave after their respective electoral debacles in 1969 and 1999 when a significant number of Umno seats were lost to the Opposition.
The question is when to leave and on whose terms.The Tunku left bitterly in September 1970, some 15 months after staying in office as a ceremonial head of government when actual powers were transferred to the post-May 13 National Operations Council chaired by his deputy Tun Abdul Razak Hussain.
Dr Mahathir somehow managed to quash post-election dissent from within Umno which was especially loud in late 2000 and early 2001 after its defeat in the Lunas by-election in Kedah.
Dr Mahathir announced his plan to retire in June 2002 and departed the scene 16 months later. Two lessons learnt were from the last transition.
First, instead of being a lame-duck during the transition, as most would assume, Dr Mahathir was all-powerful and unrestrained as everyone tried to be in his good books. Perhaps when the departure date was set, allies and foes alike were genuinely patient too.
Dr Mahathir pushed through controversial policies that otherwise would have faced severe objections. He bulldozed the RM5 billion teaching science and mathematics in English policy, which remains controversial even within Umno to this day, as well as the National Service programme.
Vintage Dr Mahathir mega projects like the crooked bridge and the double tracking railway were also pushed through without much resistance.
Second, the anointed successor is not safe until the day he is crowned, and Najib, with all his political and personal baggage, is most susceptible to trouble.
Indeed, Najib and his supporters attempted to persuade Dr Mahathir to change his mind about his own succession plan.
In April 2003, during Dr Mahathir's two-month holiday before the transition, Najib's then ally Datuk Seri Nazri Aziz, through his division, openly urged Abdullah to nominate Najib as deputy prime minister.
Najib tried his luck by condemning a special report by The Economist on Malaysia as malicious.
The report painted Dr Mahathir in a bad light while showcasing the reformist potentials of Abdullah. It was a thinly-veiled attack on Abdullah as the magazine attributed their findings to, among others, Abdullah's son-in-law Khairy Jamaluddin and another aide.
Despite seemingly having an upper hand now, Abdullah however has the tendency of squandering opportunities to change the country for the better.
This is his last chance to build a lasting legacy.
Liew Chin Tong is the DAP Member of Parliament for Bukit Bendera.
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