Malaysia’s era of political stability ends

Malaysia’s era of political stability ends

3 June, 2008

Mr Anwar has suggested that he would allow Mr Razaleigh, 71, to serve as a transition prime minister if he defects to the opposition and brings along other ethnic Malay MPs to redress the opposition’s racial balance, according to people close to the situation.

By JOHN BURTON, FINANCIAL TIMES

Malaysia used to be known for its stable politics and orderly leadership under the long-ruling National Front coalition government. No longer.

“No one knows who will be prime minister by the end of the year. It’s a very fluid situation and changes day by day,” says Raja Petra Kamarudin, editor of Malaysia Today, an influential political website.

Political stability wavered when the long-ruling National Front coalition, dominated by the United Malays National Organisation party, headed by Abdullah Badawi, suffered the worst setback for the government in 50 years in elections in March.

Now Mr Abdullah, the prime minister, must await the outcome of a series of events and will learn whether he will stay in office, be displaced by another Umno leader, or be forced to hand power to the opposition leader, Anwar Ibrahim.

Mr Abdullah must face Umno party elections in December when his leadership mandate is up for renewal. Umno members are seething with anger over the government’s loss of its two-thirds parliamentary majority and an unprecedented five of 13 state governments.

Any rival from within Umno must attract the support of at least 30 per cent of local division heads to be nominated for the party leadership. But observers say such an outcome – once unthinkable – is now looking possible.

“Abdullah still remains very vulnerable. Umno will shortly begin holding local division elections for delegates at the party conference and Abdullah’s support appears to be eroding at the grassroots,” says a foreign diplomat in Kuala Lumpur.

If Mr Abdullah becomes convinced that he does not have the numbers to survive, he is expected to set a schedule for handing over power to the deputy prime minister, Najib Razak.

Mr Najib is seen as an Umno old guard politician who favours the government’s preferential treatment of ethnic Malays, a popular cause within Umno. The policy has been criticised by the ethnic Chinese and Indian minorities and was a main reason for the government’s electoral setback. But Mr Najib also has weaknesses. He is being blamed for the government’s poor election performance because he was in charge of the campaign. His image has also been harmed by allegations of corruption involving the award of contracts by the defence ministry, which he heads. Mr Najib has denied any wrongdoing.

Mr Anwar says he would welcome Mr Najib as Umno leader since it would give a boost to the opposition at a time when the public mood has become more critical about alleged government corruption. “It’s easier for us to deal with Najib because he is tainted,” Mr Anwar said.

With this in mind, some observers think Mr Najib’s troubles could persuade Umno delegates to support instead Muhyiddin Yassin, the number three Umno official, as the next leader. A moderate from the southern state of Johor, the party’s biggest stronghold, Mr Muyhidden is already favoured as becoming deputy prime minister if Mr Najib succeeds Mr Abdullah.

But Umno calculations in trying to hold on to power by selecting a new leader could be upset if Mr Anwar carries out his threat to topple the government by mid-September by calling for a no-confidence vote. With 82 of the 222 parliamentary seats, the three-party opposition alliance needs to persuade 30 government members of parliament to defect to form a new government.

Political analysts say that Mr Anwar is targeting more than 40 government MPs to defect, which would give him a majority of 22. Most of the defectors would come from Umno’s allies in the National Front coalition from the Borneo states of Sarawak and Sabah, which have long complained about being marginalised by the central government. Mr Anwar claims that he already has enough MPs to bring down the government.

At the weekend, Mr Abdullah flew to Sabah and offered important concessions to local leaders, including handing over central government funds to the state for local development.

One problem that Mr Anwar has in relying on the Borneo MPs to help form a new government is that many of them are non-Malays, which would make the new administration the first in Malaysia’s history to be dominated by ethnic minorities. That could anger the Malay majority and perhaps lead to racial polarisation and ethnic violence.

To avoid such a situation, Mr Anwar has held informal talks with supporters of Razaleigh Hamzah, an Umno grandee and former finance minister, who has announced that he will challenge Mr Abdullah for the party leadership.

Mr Anwar has suggested that he would allow Mr Razaleigh, 71, to serve as a transition prime minister if he defects to the opposition and brings along other ethnic Malay MPs to redress the opposition’s racial balance, according to people close to the situation. “Razaleigh has a lot of credibility,” said the diplomat. An aide said Mr Razaleigh so far has resisted the idea out of loyalty to Umno, but added: “Who knows what can happen?”