1998 All Over Again?

1998 All Over Again?

30 June, 2008

When text messages began circulating late on Saturday evening that an aide of former deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim had lodged a police report accusing him of sodomy, Malaysians were stunned.

It brought back memories of 1998, when Anwar faced exactly the same accusations. That sparked an upheaval which changed Malaysia's politics in ways that were impossible to foresee then.

Now, it would appear that Malaysia has come back to exactly the same point; just like a decade ago, Anwar now faces sensational accusations just when his star is rising and seems unstoppable.

Ten years ago, then prime minister Mahathir Mohamad sacked Anwar, his deputy and heir apparent, on the grounds that he had sodomised several of his employees, who had reported the alleged deed.

Today, it is an aide--some say he was no more than a party volunteer--Saiful Bukhari Azlan, 23, who is claiming that the opposition leader had sodomised him, without his consent.

The timing could not be more dramatic.

"In Malaysia, scandal is the most effective method."

Anwar is the central opposition figure in the power struggle that has been playing out on the Malaysian stage since the March8 general election left Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi severely weakened.

The ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition is fighting for its survival, and the leadership struggle has witnessed a seemingly unending series of intrigues and plots.

Anwar is a major player in this high-stakes power play.

A master politician, he moulded the disparate opposition into a formidable threat to the once all-powerful BN. He has repeatedly threatened to break the ruling coalition's grip on the federal government by wooing defectors from its ranks.

He has said repeatedly that he has the numbers to take over the government by mid-September. He has yet to show his slate, with some suspecting him of just playing mind games and others insisting he will deliver that fatal blow to the BN soon enough.

Against such a backdrop, it is not surprising that many are speculating that the latest sodomy allegation is a move to take Mr Anwar out of the picture.

A political analyst said this was a crisis waiting to happen.

"In this game, there are no democratic means or channels for the resolution of the leadership question. In such a scenario, you will see violence or character assassination as a way to kill off the opponent," he said.

In Malaysia, scandal is the most effective method.

Indeed, the mud recently hurled at Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak and his wife Rosmah Mansor falls into the same category.

As Najib inches closer to the top job, the accusations against him have become more sensational.

Two weeks ago, a blogger lodged a statutory declaration in court claiming that Rosmah was present when a Mongolian woman was blown up.

Najib has denied the claim on behalf of his wife.

The Mongolian woman, Altantuya Shaariibuu, was the lover of a former associate of Najib, analyst Razak Baginda, who is now on trial for abetting her killing.

"Such mud slinging can be expected to intensify," said the political analyst.

Najib and Anwar are the two leaders deemed to be within the closest sight of the prime minister's job.

Given the perceived rivalry, Najib was immediately dragged into the sodomy saga, despite the lack of any concrete proof.

Anwar's wife, Wan Azizah Ismail, sought to establish a link yesterday by showing reporters a photograph of Saiful taken with an aide of Najib in the Deputy Prime Minister's office.

But it was not clear when the photo was taken, and at any rate, it was part of a series of photos of Saiful with other Cabinet ministers.

There was also a claim that Saiful used to work for Najib, but an aide to the Deputy Prime Minister told The Straits Times that this was not true.

While this conspiracy theory sounds attractive at first blush, it has been pointed out by observers that it would have been an incredibly clumsy move for Najib, given that it smacks of a strategy that failed in 1998.

The police investigation will take time and how the BN government conducts itself in the case will be watched.

If Anwar is seen as, yet again, a victim of Machiavellian politics, it will work to the advantage of the opposition.

The March 8 general election gave a hint of this. Surveys showed that soon after Anwar was attacked in the media during campaigning, voters started to abandon the BN.

However, it is unlikely that there will be an exact repeat of 1998, even though there is a strong sense of deja vu over Saiful's sodomy accusation.

The key players this time are different. Unlike Mahathir, Abdullah reportedly does not have a strong grip over key institutions such as the judiciary and the police.

But whether that will spell fewer or more problems for Anwar is unclear right now. (By CAROLYN HONG/ The Straits Times/ ANN)