KUALA LUMPUR, June 28 — Over the past 48 hours, Umno members have been trying to recall all the bit and pieces of the 1993 party elections. That was the year when the ambitious Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim moved with cunning, stealth and resources and pulled the carpet from under Tun Ghafar Baba, the party’s deputy president.
When nominations closed in September, Anwar had 145 nominations and Ghafar had a paltry 7. Ghafar conceded defeat in humiliation, and walked away into political oblivion. Those who promised to support him abandoned him at the 11th hour, choosing political survival over principles. Anwar was duly elected deputy president of Umno.
Umno officials believe that there is a repeat of 1993 under way now. The only difference: the movement by supporters of Datuk Seri Najib Razak is not as well camouflaged as that mounted by Anwar 15 years ago. But the tactics and the objective appears to be the same — to confront Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi with an overwhelming show of support from the divisions in October and force him into a corner. Abdullah will then have only two choices: set an early date for the transition of power or go head to head with Najib for the No. 1 position in Umno at the party’s polls in December. The second option only is viable if Abdullah snares at least 58 nominations.
This 1993 scenario is no longer in the realm of fantasy. Supporters of both politicians have gone to the ground and have been discussing strategy since Najib’s statement on Thursday. When asked if he would contest the party president’s position if he secured enough nominations from Umno divisions, he replied: “I will make a decision when the time comes. There is still time.”
Abdullah’s supporters are viewing this as a signal by Najib that he is willing to receive nominations from divisions to contest the party president’s position. They believe that he wants to push the PM to give him a specific hand over date. Otherwise, his supporters will push to garner more nominations than Abdullah and confront him with the same option that Ghafar had to contend with in 1993.
So how will Abdullah respond? Party officials told The Malaysian Insider that the PM has been briefed on the move to outflank him. His supporters are in fighting mode and believe that Abdullah should use all the powers of incumbency as the PM to fight any attempt to usurp his position.
Instead of going meekly like Ghafar in 1993, they want him to borrow a page from the Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad playbook and fight like the former prime minister did when Anwar moved against him in 1998. But party officials close to Abdullah say that he and Dr Mahathir are as different as light and day and the former is unlikely to use all the “tools and tactics’’ of incumbency to stay in power.
He is most likely going to appeal to Malaysians and party officials to allow him to complete his reform agenda.
The biggest challenge for Abdullah is the surly mood on the ground. Rising fuel and food prices, slumping consumer confidence and a sense of uncertainty in the new Malaysia have combined to send the government’s approval rating down sharply.
A Perak state assemblyman told The Malaysian Insider: “I love Pak Lah but on the ground it is not easy for him. People are not in a mood to listen.’’
During the last Umno supreme council meeting, Datuk Idris Jusoh presented focus group findings involving lecturers and analysts. Among other things, they suggested a change in leadership of the party. Many in the council spoke up against the findings, saying that it was superficial. Idris is the head of Umno’s recovery plan committee.
On the flip side, Najib’s biggest challenge is the negative perception surrounding his wife, Datin Seri Rosmah Mansor. Opposition politicians view her as the DPM’s Achilles heel and have made allegations about her shopping forays abroad.
Some Umno politicians worry that she may be the power behind the throne if Najib comes to power and are campaigning against him on that basis. It is almost certain that she will be a target if there is a full-blown fight for the top position in Umno. For that matter, nothing will be sacred if the top two leaders in the country go head to head.
Surveys done since Election 2008 show that Najib has yet to win over Malaysians but within Umno, he is formidable. His impressive network of support has been nurtured for more than two decades. He will go into any election contest with a confident swagger. More so against an incumbent who is still fighting to convince his party men that he has the credentials to unite the party and tame a resurgent Opposition led by Anwar.
Still, Umno politicians dread the possibility of a tussle for power, knowing that it will leave the ruling party wounded and vulnerable.
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