By Straits Times Southeast Asia correspondent Leslie Lopez KUALA LUMPUR, June 5 — Is there a link between Malaysia's plan to revamp its subsidy system and the unprecedented meeting of Umno's top brass beginning today?
A few political analysts who insist there is one say that it represents a high-stakes gamble by embattled Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi to cling on to power.
By shocking Malaysians with the prospect that rising inflation will soar further because fuel prices are expected to double in August, when the government removes the price controls completely, Datuk Seri Abdullah is hoping to divert public attention away from the country's political muddle.
He also hopes that his bold initiative will prompt senior Umno leaders, who are also key ministers in his Cabinet, to set aside their differences and rally behind him to implement the major policy initiative.
That, in turn, will show that Umno is still the backbone of the Barisan Nasional, which remains Malaysia's only effective government.
If this is Abdullah's plan, then it is fraught with serious risks. Most political analysts believe that the two-day political huddle of Umno's policymaking supreme council will bring out into the open the deepening fissures in the ruling party and fast-forward the looming battle for the country's leadership.
The meeting, which is intended for the party's elite to examine Umno's dismal showing in the March 8 general election and devise strategies for the party to regain its appeal, particularly among the country's ethnic Malays, is expected to be a heated affair.
Umno officials attending the meeting are expected to demand an explanation from Abdullah over the persistent attacks against his leadership from his detractors led by former premier Mahathir Mohamad, who has successfully painted his handpicked successor as a leader who is weak, indecisive and out of touch with the concerns of the party's rank and file.
The meeting will also dwell on the leadership succession in Umno and growing calls from within the party for Abdullah to agree to a timetable to hand over power to Datuk Seri Najib Razak, who is deputy prime minister and Umno's deputy president.
The spotlight will also be on party vice-president Muhyiddin Yassin, who is also international trade minister.
In recent interviews with the influential Utusan Malaysia, a newspaper owned by Umno, Tan Sri Muhyiddin declared that he was considering standing for the party presidency when Umno holds its own elections in December in a bid to rejuvenate its dwindling fortunes.
Close allies of Abdullah in Umno's Supreme Council say privately that Muhyiddin should explain his actions, which tacitly suggest that he has lost faith in the Umno leadership. Others suggest that he should resign from the government if he intends to challenge Abdullah in December.
Umno politics aside, the prime minister's immediate, and most serious challenge, will come from his government's decision to roll back fuel subsidies.
The country's spiralling cost of living was one of the chief reasons why the BN lost its two-third majority in Parliament, as well as control of five states assemblies, to the Opposition in the general election.
A roll-back in fuel subsidies, which will trigger spikes in food and transport prices, will not help Abdullah shore up his popularity. But his close aides say the premier strongly believes that the country can no longer foot a subsidy bill that could exceed RM50 billion this year.
For Abdullah, widespread acceptance for the roll-back in subsidies will provide him with a lifeline he needs to defend his presidency at the party elections later this year.
Public rejection of the plan will hasten his exit. — ST
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