The story being presented to Umno is that Najib is Mahathir’s proxy. If Abdullah is forced out it will not really be Najib who will be taking over. Najib will set up a Presidential Council with Mahathir as the head and one-time Daim Zainuddin as the behind-the-scenes advisor.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
The Umno chess game
Calls for Malay supremacy and Mahathirism colour the country's political scene
Leslie Lau
FOUR years ago, at a retreat of newly-elected Barisan Nasional (BN) Members of Parliament, Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi came, spoke and left. By contrast, the PM is likely to linger at the morning retreat today. Weekend Xtra understands that Abdullah, whose ruling coalition lost its two-third majority at the March 8 elections, will go from table to table, listening to the grouses and sentiments of the ruling party's MPs, in a bid to win their support as he realises it is the MPs who will now determine his tenure as PM.
He will have to ensure they do not cross the aisle to the Opposition bench. If just 30 MPs cross over, BN could end up as the opposition. He will also tell the representatives of his own United Malays National Organisation (Umno), the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) and other BN members to stop the bickering that is threatening the coalition's very existence. A very-weakened MCA is also facing a leadership tussle, while a man who lost at the polls runs the MIC.
After weeks of withstanding calls from his own party to step down, Abdullah has already signalled his mood through two identical front page editorials in the New Straits Times and Berita Harian, in which the two Umno-aligned dailies called on the party to stop moaning and groaning. The dailies noted that Malaysians were fed up with the antics of Umno, and the party should knuckle down and get on with the work of governing. But Umno, in particular, is unlikely to completely heed such calls.
"The jockeying for positions has already started and will continue as we get closer to the party polls in December. Right now, many of those who are against the PM are looking for one strong figure to stand behind," Nur Jazlan Mohamad, an Umno MP from Johor, told Today. Nur Jazlan is one of the few MPs, who, while not aligned to any of his party president's rivals, made a name for himself this week after he stood up at an Umno gathering in Johor and told Abdullah that he should consider stepping down sooner rather than later.
The two-term MP feels the PM should step aside, allowing Umno to reform itself. But, the PM has repeatedly said he will not resign before the year-end party polls, and has already named Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak as his successor.
Former PM Mahathir Mohamad has thrown his support behind his ex-enemy, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, to mount a challenge against Abdullah. By contrast, the opposition, now known as the Pakatan Rakyat, or People's Alliance, is looking like a solid, cohesive unit, displaying traits that used to be associated with BN. The Democratic Action Party (DAP), a secular, and predominantly Chinese party, and Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS), the fundamentalist conservative party with its avowed aim of eventually establishing an Islamic state, have found common ground to work together in the five states the fledgling Pakatan Rakyat coalition now controls.
The unifying factor appears to be Anwar Ibrahim's Parti Keadilan (PKR). Anwar has succeeded in bringing his Pakatan Rakyat colleagues together to project the kind of multiracial politics that appeals to many Malaysians, and is making old-style BN politics rather staid and out of sync with the times.
In the powder keg that is Malaysian politics, Anwar's brand of politics is not guaranteed to succeed. But when comparisons are made with Umno, it does have some appeal among the masses. A case in point is the fact that there is a groundswell of some significance among the Umno grassroots that the non-Malays are to be blamed for BN's big losses last month. As such, the rhetoric at many Umno gatherings has taken on racial undertones, despite the party leadership's attempts to keep it under check.
Many in the Umno grassroots are also clamouring for a return to the Mahathir-style politics of patronage. Even among the senior party leaders, there are many who want a return to the days when Umno had an unshakeable and iron grip on Malaysians, and are more interested in a change of leadership than any concrete reforms.
Last weekend, at a gathering organised by Malay NGOs and traditional supporters of Umno, Tengku Mohammad Faris Petra, a member of the Kelantan royal family, spoke about the importance of Malay political dominance. He said this was important in ensuring continued political stability. Controversially, he added that non-Malays should not demand equal rights because they had been gifted with citizenship during Malayan independence in 1957.
This was in stark contrast with Anwar's speech last Monday at a mammoth gathering marking the end of his five-year ban from active politics, following a conviction for corruption. He called on Malaysians to embrace "Ketuanan Rakyat," a phrase meaning the "supremacy of the people". It was a deliberate attempt to differentiate the Pakatan Rakyat from one of Umno's significant slogans, which calls for "Ketuanan Melayu," or the supremacy of the Malays.
The challenge now is for Umno to reinvent itself into a party that remains relevant to a changing Malaysia. As long as Umno practises the same old politics, Pakatan Rakyat will chip away at whatever support BN still has until it forms the government. And that day may come sooner rather than later.
*************************************************
You may love him, or you may hate him, but one thing you can’t do is dismiss him as a spent force. We are talking, of course, about ‘Minister Tormentor’ Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad. Yes, the Singapore Prime Minister has his Minister Mentor. The Malaysian Prime Minister, in turn, has his Minister Tormentor. And what a torment it has been for Abdullah Ahmad Badawi these last two years since Mahathir launched his attack in the middle of 2006.
Mahathir lives by certain philosophies, if I may be permitted to call them that. One is that it is not easy to bring down a Prime Minister, never mind how unpopular he may be. Mahathir is of course talking from his 22 years experience where many an attempt to bring him down have all resulted in disastrous failures. Second is that the Umno President can’t be brought down from the outside. It must be done from inside the party. But for this to happen the party must first become absolutely disgusted with its President or at the very least it must be reduced to a state of total panic. This can only be achieved if the party suffers a disastrous defeat in the general elections.
There are other ways of getting rid of the Prime Minister no doubt -- such as he loses his seat in the election. But this is almost impossible to achieve because it is not that easy to unseat an incumbent Prime Minister in his home base. Even Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail could not be brought down. Neither could Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah when he was in the opposition. The recent defeat of some of the Presidents of the Barisan Nasional component members can be regarded as a ‘flash in the pan’ -- which most certainly can’t be repeated unless a second political Tsunami was to hit Malaysia’s shores some time in the future.
One of these options presented itself on 8 March 2008 when Barisan Nasional was given a licking in the 12th General Election. Not only did five-plus-one states fall to the opposition -- together with the loss of the ruling coalition’s two-thirds majority in Parliament -- but one of these five states is Abdullah’s home base of Penang. Never before in Malaysian history has a Prime Minister’s home state fallen to the opposition. This is almost as good as the Prime Minister losing his seat. This may not have been first prize but it was definitely as close to first prize as it could get.
And with that, the groundwork was laid for the final push to oust Abdullah from his perch.
But Abdullah will not go. As Mahathir himself said in 1987, even if he wins by just one vote he will not resign. One vote is still a win, argued Mahathir, and that is the same argument Abdullah is using in justifying his determination to hold on to power.
The battle-lines are now drawn. It will be a fight to the finish. Team A and Team B has again emerged in Umno, but with a new twist. This time around, however, there is also a Team C led by Tengku Razaleigh. Yes, every ten years there appears to be a split in Umno --1988, 1998, and now 2008. It is unavoidable. Umno must go through this ten-year cycle. It has been ‘written’. And this year they are due for another massive shake-up whether they would like one or not.
Make no mistake about it. As much as many may think Abdullah is lembab, he is actually no pushover. He will not leave unless thrown out. That would be the only way to get rid of him. And this is exactly what they are trying to do if they can’t convince him that it is time to go into retirement.
Abdullah knows that his Deputy, Najib Tun Razak, is secretly working against him. In a meeting last week, Abdullah whispered into Najib’s ear, “You ni tak sabar nak jadi PM ke?” You should have seen Najib’s face turn pale. He never saw that one coming. He shifted uncomfortably in his seat while searching for the right words with which to respond. But his mind went totally blank. If he had prepared himself for this he could probably have come up with a convincing response. In this instance it is better to say nothing rather than say something that would just thrust the knife deeper.
Abdullah then officially announced that Najib is going to be his successor. This was Abdullah’s message to Malaysia that if he is pushed out then his Deputy will be taking over. This would leave Umno with a most unattractive option. It is either me or Najib. Take your pick. Presented with that option maybe it would be better to just maintain status quo. Sending Abdullah into retirement just to see Najib taking over is not really an improvement to the current situation. So better they ease up on Abdullah then push him to the wall, which would only allow an opening for Najib to get in.
The story being presented to Umno is that Najib is Mahathir’s proxy. If Abdullah is forced out it will not really be Najib who will be taking over. Najib will set up a Presidential Council with Mahathir as the head and one-time Daim Zainuddin as the behind-the-scenes advisor. Abdullah is hoping that their fear of Mahathir and Daim making a comeback through the backdoor will override their zeal of forcing him to retire.
Abdullah’s boys are also preparing to leak information about a very valuable piece of MINDEF land along Jalan Ampang that has been quietly privatised. This multi-billion deal is bigger than the Scorpeone and Sukhoi deals combined. Once this ‘secret’ becomes public knowledge, Najib, yet again, will be in the dock and will be subjected to a ‘trial’ in the court of public opinion.
Mahathir has been loyally backing Najib since he handed power to Abdullah in November 2003. But the Grand Old Man of Malaysian politics is finding it more and more difficult to prop up his kuda who is being weighed down by just too much baggage. This excess baggage is not only sinking Najib but also all those associated with him. Mahathir is beginning to wonder whether Najib is the right kuda after all.
Mukhriz has jumped into the fray and has asked Abdullah to make way for Najib. Yes, it is no longer just about asking Abdullah to resign but also about Najib taking over. Initially it was just Team A and Team B. But now that Tengku Razaleigh has been dumped he has to work all alone in his own Team C.
Abdullah’s Team A appears to be losing its supporters. All it has to show are recycled warlords like Muhammad son of Muhammad and Isa Samad, both very badly tainted politicians. Najib’s Team B has Mahathir, Daim, Mukhriz, Ali Rustam, Shahidan, Ghani, Khir Toyo and many more. Abdullah is outgunned and outmanned by the Team B forces. Tengku Razaleigh, the Dark Horse that may end up as the White Knight, is working all alone with just the principle and ideal of reform as his running mate.
Anwar Ibrahim, in the meantime, is sitting on the sidelines, very amused with the spectacle of Umno setting itself on self-destruct mode. He is not in a hurry. He needs not be in a hurry. Time is certainly on his side and the longer he waits the more time Umno will have to destroy itself.
Abdullah must be brought down in 100 days. If by July he is still in office, then it would become harder to get rid of him. Over the next two months many road-shows are being planned by Anwar, Mahathir and Abdullah. Najib needs not do the same. He can just stand aside and allow these three giants to clash, and then walk in and pick up the pieces. At least this is what Najib thinks. But then Najib does not know what Anwar is up to which may yet throw a spanner in the works and which will see Abdullah stay on as Prime Minister right until the 13th General Election due around five years or so from now.
No comments:
Post a Comment