KUALA LUMPUR, April 29 — Pundits are saying that history will judge him well. The neutrals are pleased that his reform agenda is moving along well. His supporters believe that with each passing day he will transfer power only when he is ready.
But, really, their views do not matter.
The slight lift in fortunes for Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi since March 8 could be short-lived if he does not win over a select group of people — the Umno division chiefs. Especially the 90 division chiefs who have become “unemployed” since the Pakatan Rakyat mugged the Barisan Nasional in Election 2008, taking control of Perak, Penang, Kedah and Selangor and claiming the Federal Territory in the process.
The Umno division chiefs dictate the voting pattern at the branch and division levels and influence key decisions at the ground level, including whether special meetings should be convened to discuss Abdullah’s future in the party; whether Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah or Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad should be invited to their divisions; whether Abdullah should receive nominations to contest the party president’s position in December and even which election candidates should be supported.
In short, they are the kingmakers. Dr Mahathir was able to hold on to power in Umno after the sacking of Anwar Ibrahim in 1998 because he was able, through a combination of threats and largesse, to keep these warlords in his corner. But Abdullah faces a stiffer challenge.
Party officials tell the Insider that as many as 90 grassroots leaders from Perak, Penang, Kedah, Selangor and across the country have been “unemployed” since March 8. They are no longer state assemblymen, MPs, state executive councillors or sit on the boards of state agencies. They no longer have salaries, allowances and perks like drivers or bodyguards.
A party official, who has been monitoring the sentiment in Umno for the leadership, told the Insider: “They also have house payments to make, look after their children’s education, school fees and also need funds to run their divisions. They never expected to be out of office.”
He believes that Abdullah needs to look after the division heads or at least take some steps to lighten their burden. Otherwise, they will gravitate to politicians who are interested in forcing the party president to step down before December. Worse yet for Abdullah, they may nominate others to challenge him for the party president’s post.
Branches will begin their meetings in mid-July while divisions will start meetings in September. Between now and then, Abdullah may have to appoint some of these division heads to federal-run agencies in the Pakatan Rakyat-held states, or even give the bigger warlords positions in government-linked companies. The rumblings on the ground suggest that they have not been as impressed with Abdullah’s moves to reform the judiciary or the Anti-Corruption Agency as other Malaysians.
Professor Datuk Mohamed Ariff, the executive director of the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research, wrote: “It is not difficult to argue why Abdullah should continue to be at the helm for some time to come. Contrary to what his detractors may have to say, Abdullah already has much to his credit since he became the prime minister. His leadership differed from that of his predecessor not only in terms of style but also in substance… Indications are that history will not judge him harshly and recognise his iconic contributions to the democratic heritage of the country.”
But for the Umno power brokers at division level, these positive changes have little impact on their lives. They are influenced by less lofty ideals and plans. All they want is their stature, position and livelihood back. Abdullah’s ability to deliver these things could finally decide his longevity as Umno president and Prime Minister of Malaysia.
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