Political uncertainty in Malaysia

Political uncertainty in Malaysia
2 Sept, 2008

Smear campaigns and a spell in prison have failed to make Anwar Ibrahim look any less like Malaysia's next prime minister, writes Guardian world affairs correspondent Simon Tisdall, THE GUARDIAN WEEKLY

Anwar speaks at a news conference in Kuala Lumpur. Photograph: Andy Wong/AP

The more they try to do him down, the more Anwar Ibrahim, Malaysia’s resilient opposition leader, just pops back up. If the Barisan Nasional coalition led by prime minister Abdullah Badawi does not land a knockout punch soon, it could find itself out of power for the first time since independence from Britain in 1957. For one of the most successful of the south-east Asian "tigers", that would be nothing less than a political revolution.

Anwar’s latest bit of deft ducking and weaving came last week when he stormed to victory in a parliamentary by-election. Despite a government-led campaign to convince the ethnic Malay majority that he would favour Chinese and Muslim minorities – and undermine the multi-faceted country’s cohesion – Anwar’s winning margin was nearly 16,000 votes.

Voters seem to have been particularly unimpressed by sodomy charges brought against Anwar in June, just after a previous ban on his holding political office expired. The allegations echoed similar claims 10 years ago that led to Anwar, a former deputy prime minister, being jailed. Those accusations were later shown to be a deliberate smear and his conviction was overturned in court. Now many Malays believe he is being framed again.

Fifty-nine per cent told pollsters that they thought the sodomy charges were politically motivated. Most also agreed that the economy was a more important issue, and blamed Abdullah for not doing enough to address it. Rising food and fuel prices, falling investment, slower growth and a depressed stock market have conspired to take the shine off Malaysia’s once stellar economic performance.

Anwar’s election victory meant he could return to parliament for the first time in nearly a decade, and he duly did so last Thursday. His reappearance in the corridors of power has lent momentum to his bold vow to win over enough defectors from the ruling coalition by September 16 to oust the Barisan Nasional and form a new government. The alliance uniting Anwar’s People’s Justice party, the ethnic Chinese Democratic Action party and the Islamic party (PAS) won 82 seats and several state governorships in a general election upset earlier this year. It needs to woo 30 government MPs in order to command a majority.

Anwar’s refusal to lie down and stay down has got Abdullah rattled. The latter used his National Day speech on Sunday (Aug 31) to rally public support in what he said was a fight against "all enemies”. Trying to bring down the government without fresh elections was illegal, he suggested, although on the other hand, he did not offer to hold new polls. "A united people is a strong national bulwark against any threat, whether from within or outside the country," Abdullah warned darkly.

Abdullah is now manipulating economic policy in a blatant attempt to shore himself up politically. In order to head off ruling coalition defections in eastern Sabah and Sarawak states, which have long complained of central government neglect, his 2009 budget proposes major infrastructure projects for both. His deputy, Najib Razak, is meanwhile warning that Malaysia’s independence could be undermined if Anwar took power. That is a reference to strong US support for the embattled opposition leader over the years, and Washington’s criticism of Malaysia’s human and civil rights standards.

Abdullah has promised to hand over the premiership to Najib in 2010, a cosy arrangement that has heightened perceptions that the United Malays National Organisation, which leads the ruling coalition, is interested only in perpetuating its unbroken and allegedly corrupt grip on power. Again and again Anwar has driven home the message that the time has come to extirpate a self-serving clique and its numerous placemen, sinecurists and pliant cops and judges.

"We see the constitution being weakened, democracy trampled on, and national institutions turned into the tools of the ruling power," Anwar said after his election victory. "It is time for Malaysians to rediscover the real meaning of freedom."

Anwar seems to have time on his side. All sides agree that the political uncertainty of the past few months has damaged the country at a difficult juncture. If Abdullah cannot restore calm and order, traditional backers including the business community may prefer to give Anwar his chance for the sake of stability.

That scenario ignores the possibility that Anwar’s promised reforms, if and when enacted, may cause even greater upheavals. It also assumes that his sodomy accusers do not succeed in derailing his career a second time – and that nothing more sinister befalls him in the crucial weeks ahead.