SEPT 28 - Political situations are mostly driven by events. It’s hard for any leader to to control his party members with an open style of leadership as unbridled democracy liberates his followers.
An event like a national catastrophe can make an unpopular leader popular again.
The 9/11 attack on the Twin Towers in New York boosted US President George W. Bush's poll ratings and made a whole nation forget that he won the presidential election a year before in dubious circumstances.
President Bush's fortuitous good fortune at the expense of nearly 3000 people who died that day probably won him his second term.
Please forgive me for sounding cold but it is now a historical fact that the patriotic feelings stirred up by that attack probably did give him enough votes to win a second term despite forceful opposition to the Iraq war.
For our Prime Minister and my Umno President, in 2004, he started with high marks with his promises to reform the civil service, improve the poor government delivery system and eliminate corruption.
He promised to be open and be a Prime Minister for all Malaysians.
He promised to become a more consultative Umno president.
His noble and sometimes naive promises created high expectations with the rakyat and eventually drove them to vote the opposition in droves in the 2008 general elections when they felt disappointed with the poor outcome of his efforts.
Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi as a person is considered as the most religious prime minister the with highest moral integrity.
He is a better candidate than Pakatan Rakyat's Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim if moral up righteousness was the only yardstick in selecting the prime minister of the country.
Unfortunately for him, the Almighty did not save him with a heaven sent positive turn of events since the March 2008 elections.
Last Friday morning, his own Umno supreme council colleagues turned against him and rejected the transition plan agreed by them two months ago.
In my opinion, Datuk Seri Abdullah was forced to accelerate his departure by the supreme council the Malay way.
The Malays do not like to confront their problems especially when it means telling their leader to step down.
The Malays are not like the South Africans who were brutal to their President Thabo Mbeki and forced him to leave with a year of his final term left.
The various moves executed by the supporters and critics of the Prime Minister since the March elections resemble a silat repertoire.
There were actors from both sides in the contest who posed and made a lot of noises for months but never actually delivering a single body blow until last Friday.
Last May, in an Umno Johor state meeting with him, I decided to behave in an un-Malay way and told Datuk Seri Abdullah to consider resigning as prime minister earlier to prevent Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah from disturbing and preventing a smooth transition in the party.
I was vilified by many members of Umno including my own father, Tan Sri Mohamed Rahmat, who was a former Umno secretary general and a loyal lieutenant to Dr Mahathir, the former prime minister who was also disliked by many in the party and the public in general in the later years of his rule.
My father always taught me to respect my leaders and never be rude to them.
Unfortunately, over the 14 years of active involvement in the party, I also found out that Umno members are fearful of change.
They like to talk about it unproductively, in coffee shops but they would shrink into the background when asked to come forward and lead the charge.
They would rather like to "main belakang", to borrow a Malay phrase literally meaning "playing the back".
Its no surprise that the rakyat finally despised Umno enough and they eventually acted to seriously, hopefully not mortally, wound it in the March 2008 elections.
They no longer respect Umno leaders or revere Umno as a result.
On hindsight, it’s not a surprise that Datuk Seri Abdullah's call for change went unheard in the party and the sceptical public.
I have always felt bad about telling Datuk Seri Abdullah to go as Prime Minister now especially after the Friday's Umno supreme council decision.
I don't feel vindicated even though I should. Maybe that's the Malay part of me feeling sorry after all.
Datuk Seri Abdulah will become the shortest reigning Prime Minister on record, completing 5 years and four months when he leaves in March 2009.
It would be four months shorter than Tun Hussein Onn's time in office.
His record as Prime Minister although mixed, will still be respectable. He delivered Barisan Nasional's best and worst general election results.
He will not get the tearful exit that Tun Dr Mahathir received in the well engineered 2002 UMNO General Assembly shock retirement announcement.
But I am sure many people would learn to appreciate him after he is gone just like Tun Dr Mahathir.
Umno will move forward and will certainly elect Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak as president and Prime Minister, barring unforeseen circumstances.
I hope Datuk Seri Najib will be able to consolidate his position and use his good negotiation skills to prevent a scramble for the other key posts in the party.
He doesn't have much time as the Umno divisional elections start on October 9.
I hope he can change the party. Only then can Umno transform itself and have a chance to survive.
If he fails, maybe not.
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