Anwar likely to win seat, but then what?

Anwar likely to win seat, but then what?
From the South China Morning Post

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 2 — Opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is likely to step into Parliament after a 10-year absence if he wins the seat vacated this week by his wife. But, beyond that, his political future remains uncertain.

While an easy win is predicted for Anwar in the family stronghold of Permatang Pauh, his plan to topple Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's government by attracting defectors now seems to be in trouble with the loose coalition he heads showing signs of breaking up.

Anwar's wife, Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Ismail, announced on Thursday she was resigning from the constituency she has held for nine years to allow her husband to contest it in a by-election as he steps up his bid to become Malaysia's next prime minister.

Dr Wan Azizah said she was just fulfilling her campaign promise, and that the time had come. A ban barring Anwar from holding office because of a corruption conviction expired in April. After his opposition party made strong inroads against the ruling coalition in March elections, he is seeking to consolidate the gains.

But Anwar's "plans to become prime minister could be derailed even though he wins the by-election", said political scientist Wong Chin Huat, of Monash University, because of disunity in his coalition, the Pakatan Rakyat.

The alliance won five state governments and 82 seats in the 222-seat Parliament in the March 8 general election, but those gains are in question with the opposition threatening to break up in reaction to the recent accusations of sodomy filed with police by a former Anwar aide.

Anwar may now find it difficult to attract the 30 or so government lawmakers that he needs to defect to his alliance if he is to force the resignation of the Abdullah government, Wong said.

"A (by-election) win will give him a firmer national footing but will not resolve the numerous challenges he faces," Wong said. "He enters the by-election with a mixed bag — political victory is propelling him forward, but the sodomy allegation and possible arrest are setback that will impact on the voters."

Anwar told supporters on Thursday: "The plan for me to become prime minister by Sept 16 (Malaysia Day) is on track."

Observers see the decision to force a by-election as a desperate move to gain the initiative against possible filing of criminal charges that he sodomised his aide on June 26. Anwar says the charge is a political set-up to stop him from becoming prime minister.

The Election Commission, which will meet on Wednesday, is expected to fix polling for the by-election in Permatang Pauh, where 68 per cent of the voters are Malays and the rest Chinese and Indians.

By law, a person can contest an election even if charged so long as on nomination day he or she is not convicted of any criminal offence, allowing Anwar to campaign.

"The sodomy allegation will be the key issue in the by-election," Wong said. "Anwar is hoping a victory will vindicate him before the people, whatever the verdict of a future court. It would be a spectacular propaganda coup if he is charged and he goes on to win."

Anwar first won the seat as a government candidate in 1982 and held it until he was sacked in 1998. His wife won it in 1999 as an opposition candidate and held it for three terms until her resignation.