28 Aug, 2008
Malaysian's, like elsewhere in Asia, are feeling the pinch from the high cost of food and fuel, and becoming increasingly discontent with government efforts to rein in spending that cuts fuel subsidies and hurts the poor.
Luke Hunt, World Politics Reveiw
It was a long time coming, but the dissident and sometimes mischievous politician Anwar Ibrahim has bloodied the nose of Malaysia's ruling coalition by winning Tuesday's by-election, marking his return to parliament and positioning himself for a tilt at the nation's top job.
"The message is clear," he told thousands of cheering supporters. "We in Permatang Pauh and in Malaysia, we demand change for freedom and justice."
"We want an independent judiciary, we want the economy to benefit the vast majority and not corrupt the few," he said to the chants of "reformasi" and "merdeka" which mean reform and freedom.
Victory in the by-election in the town of Permatang Pauh in the country's north followed a vicious campaign.
Anwar has denied a charge of sodomy -- a criminal offence in mostly Muslim Malaysia -- and brushed aside further allegations of cronyism as his enemies, and there are many in the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), scurry to shore-up their positions.
But whether Anwar can deliver on a promise to oust the current leadership and form a new government by Sept. 16 remains doubtful. Politicians in the more remote states of Sabah and Sarawak on Borneo are standing steadfast behind Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi for the moment.
"Defections will prove trickier than he thinks," one seasoned observer told World Politics Review from Kota Kinabalu in Sabah. "It's all about who goes first, and I think the Malaysian politicians on Borneo would like to see at least 10 high-ranking National Front defections to Anwar before they even think about moving."
UMNO is the lead party in the National Front coalition, which has ruled for decades, and now that Anwar is back in Parliament he will need at least 30 members of the current government to switch allegiances before he can petition the monarchy and demand he be allowed lead.
Underpinning Anwar is a support base he has steadily built upon for a decade, especially since being released from jail in July 2004. The conviction on what he claims where politically motivated corruption charges meant he was legally barred from standing for Parliament until April this year. His wife, who held the seat of Permatang Pauh, stood aside and allowed him to run.
From the political sidelines, Anwar had campaigned heavily, accusing the government of corruption, incompetence and moral bankruptcy while holding to a political strategy designed to return him to office.
This came to a head in March when UMNO and the National Front took an unprecedented hammering in national elections.
The ruling coalition lost its coveted two-thirds majority in the 222-seat parliament and control of five state governments. It was the worst performance since independence in 1957, and forced Badawi to announce he will hand over power to his troubled deputy prime minister, Najib Razak, in mid-2010.
Razak has been linked to the alleged murder of Mongolian model Altantuya Shaaribuu and defended himself by swearing on the Quran in a Mosque that he never had anything to do with the woman.
That case is before the courts and has provided some rich fodder for Anwar, who has teased and taunted his foes ever since the poll with audacious claims of imminent defections in their ranks, a claim the government dismisses as ridiculous.
His claims are backed by Pakatan Rakyat (PR), a coalition that consists of Anwar's multiracial Parti Keadila Rakyat, the Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party and Parti Islam SeMalaysia. They hold a combined 82 seats in federal Parliament.
The Sept. 16 date for establishing a new government is not without significance. It was on that day in 1963 that Malaya, Singapore, Sabah and Sarawak agreed to form Malaysia. Singapore left the federation two years later and relations between the two Borneo states, which have a combined 42-seats in Parliament, and Peninsular Malaysia have proved strained.
It's here in the oil- and gas-rich zones of the country that Anwar is concentrating much of his efforts. People in the region are regarded as tough but feel their needs have gone largely ignored by politics at the national level.
Malaysian's, like elsewhere in Asia, are feeling the pinch from the high cost of food and fuel, and becoming increasingly discontent with government efforts to rein in spending that cuts fuel subsidies and hurts the poor.
Anwar has countered by offering oil- and gas-producing states a 20 percent share of royalties, up from 5 percent currently.
Secret deals, according to Anwar, mean he has enough members of parliament prepared to join the PR coalition.
A head count by the Singapore Straits Times recently claimed Anwar could muster 40 defections, giving him a clear majority, and he has won support from normally silent quarters. Former Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid has spoken out in his support.
Better known as Gus Dur, the prominent Asian figure broke with a Southeast Asian tradition that dictates non-interference in neighboring politics by calling a press conference in the lead-up to the poll, when he also claimed Malaysia's legal system was undemocratic and questioned the need for a robust Internal Security Act.
Anwar's victory also dealt a humiliating defeat to his former boss Mahathir Mohammad, who has proved himself an ardent commentator and backroom political negotiator since retiring from public life and the prime ministership almost five years ago.
Anwar was sacked by Mahathir, beaten and jailed on sodomy and corruption charges in 1998 and served six years behind bars.
Those earlier sodomy charges were later dropped but Malaysians were stunned and unconvinced when a 23-year-old former male aide, Saiful Bukhari Azlan, accused Anwar of sodomy, also swearing on the Quran, in the wake of the government's pitiful performance in the March poll.
PR supporters have dismissed those charges as part of a government-orchestrated "dirty tricks" campaign in the lead-up to Tuesday's by-election, but fear the worst is still to come from a scandal-prone government that is seen as increasingly isolated from mainstream Malaysian life.
Still, a back-handed compliment was in the offing from Mahathir as Anwar lined up against his opponents from the Malaysian India Congress and UMNO for the by-election. Mahathir issued a warning for his fellow UMNO supporters, saying: "If Anwar wins with a higher majority it translates that UMNO has lost its popularity."
He was right. Anwar needed to win by at least the majority 13,388 votes his wife won when she took the seat in the March general election. Anwar won 15,671 votes and it would appear that UMNO has lost its popularity. After a decade in the political wilderness, Anwar may be about to come full circle.
Luke Hunt is a Hong Kong-based correspondent and a World Politics Review contributing editor.
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