Slightly quiet on the Umno front, but Pak Lah far from safe

Slightly quiet on the Umno front, but Pak Lah far from safe KUALA LUMPUR, May 8 — Two months into his second term as Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi find himself in political purgatory, more secure in Umno than he was several weeks ago but far from home and dry. And all signs point to a rollercoaster ride for him over the next few months as pressure mounts on him to lighten the burden of gut-wrenching inflation being felt by Malaysians and fend-off the second wave of attacks by the combined force of the Pakatan Rakyat and his critics within Umno, including Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad. Party officials and Abdullah’s supporters note that the calls for him to resign as party president have dropped by a few decibel levels compared to the first five weeks after Election 2008. This could be down to several factors, most notably the admission by the PM that his patchy track record contributed to Barisan Nasional’s poor performance at the general election and his willingness to hand over power to Datuk Seri Najib Razak by 2010. The Insider has also learnt that a couple of weeks ago Najib sent word down to grassroots leaders to stop agitating for a change in leadership and concentrate instead on offering meaty ideas on revitalising Umno. He was worried that the constant buzz of asking Abdullah to step down before the party polls in December would inject more uncertainty into a government still coming to grips with running Malaysia without its customary two-thirds majority in Parliament. The result: only a clutch of Umno divisions including Cheras, Batu Pahat and Muar divisions have pushed for Abdullah to resign before December or for a special EGM to be held to discuss Election 2008 and the future of Malays, as suggested by Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. The result: the reluctance of many divisions to provide a platform for Dr Mahathir or Tengku Razaleigh to attack the current Umno leadership. A party official, who is helping Abdullah touch base with the powerful division chiefs, told the Insider: “The anger against Pak Lah is still there. Party members still cannot believe that we are in the opposition in Selangor, Kedah, Penang and Perak. But the view seems to be let’s have an orderly transition and that’s why there is less noise from the ground. But Pak Lah has still much work to do.’’ The PM still has to convince Malaysians and party members that he has the ability to make his reform agenda real. The optics have been great since he announced plans to set up a Judicial Appointments Commission and to change the structure of the Anti-Corruption Agency and make it report to a parliamentary committee. But the public wants to see the vision become reality, noting that Abdullah has been notorious for not being able to carry through his plans. The Insider understands that de facto Law Minister Datuk Zaid Ibrahim is expected to present detailed plans for the judicial commission by the middle of May but there remains residual resistance to setting up this body which will advise the PM on the selection and appointment of judges. Some of those against the idea are a handful of ministers and judges. Abdullah will have to ride roughshod over any objections and speed up the setting up of the commission. Any delay or a back-to-the-drawing-board scenario will raise serious questions over whether he has the will to be a reformer. But perhaps his biggest challenge will be in handling rising food prices and mitigating inflation for Malaysia’s middle- and lower-income classes. He, the Second Finance Minister Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop and other government officials were huddled together in a meeting on Monday to discuss steps to help Malaysia lighten the burden of the higher cost of living. Among the measures being discussed include direct cash payments to certain category of citizens. The PM knows that inflation and the government’s inability to tackle it was the single-most important issue in Election 2008. He has promised a package of measures to help lower-income Malaysians. He has to deliver, and deliver fast. But there are some humps to navigate, notably a new structure to deliver fuel subsidies effectively to target groups and the challenging financial and economic situation. At the Ministry of Finance, the ongoing debate is whether the administration should take its eye off the budget deficit and pump prime. BN politicians think that Abdullah should worry less about what economists and fund managers say and allow the deficit to rise above the current 3.2 per cent level. They argue that keeping the 40,000 Class F contractors and Malaysians in general contented is a more pressing need than not passing debt to the next generation. But another school of thought believes that the administration should keep a tight rein on spending given that a more biting slowdown could hit Malaysia in 2009 and 2010. A senior government official, familiar with discussions, said: “The government cannot be in a situation where it spends today and finds itself without enough bullets to use when things get really challenging in two years.’’ Still, party officials counter that for Abdullah, December is a more important date than two years down the road. He is seeking nominations from the divisions to defend his position as the party president. If the power brokers feel the pinch and feel that their predicament is not going to be resolved by Abdullah, there will be fewer reasons for them to nominate him for the top post. Abdullah’s opponents know that the next few months are crucial. Pakatan Rakyat politicians know that if he is allowed to settle into his position, he could end up announcing more reforms and exuding the aura of someone who has a handle on things in Malaysia. This could complicate any effort to persuade the 30 BN MPs to cross over and cause the collapse of the Abdullah administration. DAP’s Lim Kit Siang and others in Pakatan Rakyat will aim to punch holes in Abdullah’s reform agenda and argue that Abdullah and his government have refused to take on board the lessons of Election 2008. In this regard, the arrest of blogger Raja Petra Kamaruddin and his decision to stay in jail rather than pay the RM5,000 bail will help an alliance of Pakatan Rakyat and non-governmental organisations apply pressure on the administration and keep alive the debate on some of the country’s contentious laws and institutions. Abdullah’s critics in Umno know that if he is allowed to settle into a comfortable position, their hopes of forcing him out before December will be unsuccessful. That is why Dr Mahathir has been troubled by the sudden hush on the ground against the PM. Without agitation on the ground, the party leadership will not be moved to remove the clause requiring any person wanting to contest the party president's position to obtain 58 nominations. Without agitation on the ground, there will be less chance of branches passing resolutions of no-confidence in Abdullah’s leadership when they meet in mid-July. At a press conference last Thursday, Mahathir took a swipe at the culture of silence. By doing so he was attempting to re-ignite the embers of anger against Abdullah. "Things are getting very serious now. People are not allowed to talk. I understand when Tengku Razaleigh goes around to meet people at the branch level, Umno members were told not to attend. What kind of party is this? You are only allowed to hear from one source. I think this is the cause of the losses of the last election. People were not allowed to speak and the leadership does not know what the people are thinking," he said. He noted that Abdullah’s call for divisions not to hold EGMs smacked of self-preservation. “Without EGMs, you cannot change the rule on the 30 per cent quota. If you cannot change the quota rule... there would be no divisions that would nominate anyone else other than Abdullah... He would win uncontested," he said. Tengku Razaleigh’s supporters believe that far fewer divisions than they expected will hold EGMs but the Kelantan prince will still press on with his campaign for democratic contests to be allowed to flourish in the party. Like Dr Mahathir, he too believes that the quota system should be scrapped but there are major differences in his strategy. For one, he is not pushing for the setting up of a presidential council to advise the Umno president on policy matters. He also believes that any change in party leadership should follow the party constitution and be effected through elections. For these reasons, Tengku Razaleigh has preferred not to share the same stage with Dr Mahathir or other critics of Abdullah despite several overtures. Dr Mahathir will take his roadshow to the Umno stronghold of Johor on May 17 and Ku Li will continue with his tour of the country. Both know that the decibel levels of criticism against Abdullah cannot be allowed to drop further. Silence from the ground will give Abdullah a free pass to defend his party president’s position in December.