26 May, 2008
Jonathan Manthorpe, Vancouver Sun
The verbal sniping match between Malaysia's former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad and his hand-picked successor Abdullah Badawi has blossomed into a full-blown political brawl that some predict will bring down the coalition that has ruled the country for 51 years.
Mahathir, who considers himself the father of Malaysia's economic and social success during his 22 years in power, began about a year ago publicly questioning his own judgement in handing leadership to the underwhelming Abdullah in 2003.
Abdullah has been more restrained in his responses, but 10 days ago he moved the contest from being a war of words in the newspapers into the realms of a grudge match.
Abdullah is fighting for his political life after the bad showing of the ruling 14-party Barisan Nasional coalition in March elections.
The coalition, led by Abdullah's United Malays National Organization (UMNO), won, but with a much reduced majority.
There is persistent speculation in Malaysia's political circles that if Abdullah continues at the helm of UMNO the governing coalition will be vulnerable to the opposition led by former deputy prime minister Anwar Ibrahim's Pakatan Rakyat (PR) party.
Mahathir has been especially vocal in demands that Abdullah be replaced immediately.
Abdullah's response came just over a week ago when he backed the report of a commission on judicial reform which, among other recommendations, said Mahathir and several of his former political associates should be investigated with a view to prosecution.
The commission said there appears to be substance to allegations that Mahathir and his colleagues were involved in fixing the appointments, promotions and sacking of judges.
Of special concern was the removal of six top judges in 1988, which many have claimed seriously undermined the rule of law and perceived independence of the judiciary in Malaysia.
Writing in The Wall Street Journal last week Malaysia's minister responsible for law reform Zaid Ibrahim put a high moral gloss on the move against Mahathir saying "it is important the government acknowledge that serious transgressions have occurred."
The business community in Malaysia has been concerned about the fairness and capacity of the judiciary in settling disputes, he said. Judicial reform is essential for Malaysia to sustain economic growth and remain an attractive destination for foreign investment.
All that is true, but it was equally evident there was hope the launching of the investigation would curb Mahathir, who is 82 years old and has had some serious health problems.
Well, for Mahathir the recommendation that he be investigated was the final insult.
Last week he resigned from UMNO and said he would not rejoin as long as Abdullah remains the party leader.
The implications of this stunning move are still being chewed over in Malaysia, which is alive with speculation about the results.
So far as Abdullah is concerned, some expect him to speed up a planned hand over of the UMNO leadership to his deputy, Najib Razak, ahead of what is likely to be a bruising party conference later this year.
Already former trade minister and perennial leadership candidate Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah has said he will challenge Abdullah at that meeting.
Another possible outcome of Mahathir's resignation is that it could spark a series of defections from UMNO. If that turned into a flood and included members of parliament it might put Anwar and the PR-led coalition in power.
Anwar's party only needs 30 more seats to hold a simple majority in parliament and thus be in a position to form a government.
This would probably not be an outcome that would please Mahathir.
Anwar was Mahathir's deputy and finance minister in the 1990s, but the two fell out over how to respond to the Asian economic crisis which started in 1997.
Anwar was ousted and when he tried to establish a rival political party, charging Mahathir and UMNO with corruption, Mahathir took vigorous revenge.
Trumped up charges of sodomy and corruption were launched against Anwar, who spent six years in prison. The conviction was overthrown only after Mahathir had resigned.
So there is a logical belief in Malaysian political circles that if Anwar wins power he and his supporters will want to examine the many allegations of cronyism, patronage and corruption that hang around the Mahathir years.
To reach Jonathan Manthorpe, go to his blog at: www.vancouversun.com/blogs
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