(TheMalaysianInsider) KUALA LUMPUR, May 22 — For now, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s move to resign from Umno and shake the foundations of the party seems to be floundering. At last night’s supreme council meeting, the country’s ruler for 22 years did not find support from Datuk Seri Najib Razak, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin or any senior Umno officials.
Round the table, everyone was upset that Dr Mahathir had put his own interests above that of the ruling party. A few of them also noted that the campaign to oust Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi as Umno president and prime minister had become mean-spirited.
So for now at least, none of the party’s power brokers — ministers, deputy ministers, menteris besar, state liaison chiefs and elected representatives — appear interested to accept Dr Mahathir’s invitation to follow his lead, quit the party and force Abdullah out of office.
Still, his resignation had added another variable into the dynamic post-election political environment, and could have an impact on all the major players. The Malaysian Insider spoke to several politicians and political pundits and these are their views on:
• Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi
He is not on the ropes like he was a few weeks after Election 2008 with recent surveys showing a steady rise in support among Umno members for his leadership and acceptance that the poor performance of Barisan Nasional on March 8 was down to a combination of factors and not only his style of leadership.
But Abdullah is not in safe territory, yet. Concerns remain over his ability to chart a new direction for Umno and the Barisan Nasional, and inspire confidence among his countrymen. Mahathir’s resignation and the constant speculation of crossovers to Pakatan Rakyat only add further pressure on him to come up with the goods, soon. And then there is the lingering threat of rising prices stoking unhappiness among Malaysians.
His every move will be dissected and debated by party faithful between now and the start of branch and division elections, from mid-July till October.
His main dilemma will be: party or country?
So far he has won plaudits among segments of Malaysians for his moves to set up a Judicial Appointments Commission, reform the judiciary and strengthen the Anti-Corruption Agency. He earned kudos for expressing the government’s regret at the treatment of the judges who were sacked and suspended in 1988 and for acknowledging that the episode 20 years ago was the starting point in the downward spiral of the once-respected institution.
But many Umno members have been indifferent to his reforms so far. Some are even unnerved by talk of improved governance, the end of negotiated tenders and more space for other races and religions to flourish in Malaysia.
The sentiment on the ground is that Abdullah played into the hands of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim by agreeing to set up a Royal Commission of Enquiry into the V.K. Lingam video clip.
The commission’s fingering of Umno secretary-general Tengku Adnan Mansor and Dr Mahathir as main players in a scheme to fix the appointment and promotion of judges has only stirred up more disquiet over Abdullah’s reform agenda.
De facto Law Minister Datuk Zaid Ibrahim wrote in an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal that by recognising the problems in the judiciary and acting to bring renewal, Abdullah is sending a signal to other institutions that “the government has heard the people’s call for greater transparency and accountability, and will bring reform where it is needed. This is a historic moment for our country, and I am proud to be part of it.’’
His may not be the majority view in the party or in influential segments of the party.
Following the gathering of Malay non-governmental organisations and Umno members in Johor over the weekend, there has been some movement to urge Umno MPs to block the passage of legislation on the judicial commission when it is presented before the House in July. This constituency is arguing that senior positions on the Bench including that of the Chief Justice could be given to non-Malays if the commission is set up. They do not have much traction yet with Umno lawmakers.
Under the existing system, the list of candidates is prepared by the Chief Justice, a position traditionally held by a Malay judge, in consultation with the PM.
Some Umno members are also unsettled by the tough talk by BN leaders like MCA’s Ong Tee Keat on the concept of Malay supremacy and the MIC’s insistence that the five Hindu Rights Action Force leaders be released from detention under the Internal Security Act. They want to see a strong Umno leader put the other component party leaders in place and drive an agenda which protects the interests of the party and Malays. They refuse to accept that Election 2008 has changed the markers in politics here.
So will Abdullah soldier on with reforms for the good of the country and risk alienating supporters in Umno? Or will he keep his eye on the mood in Umno and tailor his policies and decisions to appease this group.
Given that the branch and division elections are beginning soon, some of his supporters are telling him that he should focus on shoring up support with the party and look after the 90-odd division chiefs who were left “unemployed’’ and without any positions now that five states are in the hands of the Opposition. After all, the next general election is five years away, they reasoned. Deal with snaring the 58 nominations needed to defend the party president’s position first and then worry about regaining the support of the rest of Malaysia.
The PM should be wary of going down this path. Some 18 months into his first term in office, he opted for the party-before-country approach after realising that it was difficult to reform Umno. So he studiously avoided dealing with any controversial racial or religious issues which would spook his party men.
For example, in the aftermath of the dispute over whether Everest conqueror Moorthy should have been buried as a Muslim or Hindu, and other “body snatching’’ cases, the non-Muslim religious groups had a tough time getting an appointment to meet him. There was also no urgency to push through legislation which would have clearly defined the conversion procedures or settle the vexing issue of Syariah Court jurisdiction over non-Muslims or put in a mechanism on the removal of places of worship.
Abdullah’s administration also took its foot off the pedal in the fight against corruption, parading measly gains before a deeply sceptical public. The PM and the government paid dearly for putting party before country.
A day before the general election, polls showed that Indian support for BN had plummeted from 82 per cent in 2006 to just above 30 per cent. The drop was steep but not as dramatic among the Chinese. A week after the polls, the PM’s acceptance level among Indians and Chinese hovered around the 30 per cent mark.
Today, his approval rating among non-Malays has increased slightly but not enough to give him any sense of comfort.
Party or country? Abdullah is aware that if he swings too much towards addressing the needs and concerns of Umno, he could unhinge the support base of the MCA, MIC and other component parties, forcing them to consider a future outside the BN.
During a meeting with Umno MPs on Tuesday, he reminded them that Umno had to serve Malaysians and protect the interests of those outside the party also. When he returns from Japan next week, he is expected to go on a nationwide tour and address large groups of Malaysians. Perhaps then it will be clearer if he is prepared to put national interests above party interests.
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