The Mother Of All By-Elections

Saturday August 2, 2008

Who is going to take on Anwar?

The stakes are incredibly high for what will be the mother of all by-elections in Permatang Pauh

ANALYSIS BY JOCELINE TAN

DATUK Abdul Jalil Abdul Majid carries two hand phones and both have been ringing non-stop since news broke out that Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim would be contesting a by-election in Permatang Pauh.

“I have been bombarded with calls - kring-kring here, kring-kring there, I had to let my wife handle one of the phones,” said Abdul Jalil, who is the Permatang Pauh Umno chief.

Almost every single one of his callers wanted to know who the Barisan Nasional candidate would be.

Abdul Jalil did not have the answer. But he was confident that the candidate would be an anak tempatan, that is, a local born.

Umno politics does not favour parachute candidates or outsiders and the case for a local born is even stronger in this contest because Anwar was born and bred in Cherok Tok Kun where the family home still stands.

Party officials admit they are “struggling to find a good candidate” because the local politics over the last few years has not exactly encouraged the emergence of new faces.

But the party leadership is mulling over a number of names and they include the following:

> Datuk Ahmad Saad, 57 - (Former Permatang Pauh strongman and assemblyman, who owns an air-conditioner manufacturing plant)

> Datuk Arif Shah Omar Shah, 52 - (Seberang Jaya assemblyman known for his ISO-certified service centre and fluency in Mandarin)

> Datuk Abdul Jalil Abdul Majid, 54 - (Permatang Pauh division chief and former assemblyman)

> Datuk Dr Pirdaus Ismail, 43 - (Former National Mosque imam, lost twice to Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail)

The local bias would effectively cancel out other potential candidates like former PKR Youth head Ezam Mohd Nor who is all too eager to contest against his former political mentor. But he will probably be used to wash dirty linen about PKR in the campaign.

Ahmad, who tops the list at this point in time, used to be Anwar’s trusted No 2 in Permatang Pauh when Anwar was in power. Ahmad contested but lost to Dr Wan Azizah in 1999.

The Umno side thinks it will be quite difficult for Anwar to attack him given their previous ties.

Arif Shah, also a former Anwar-man, is well regarded by all communities and would have been the most apt candidate if he was not already an assemblyman.

Abdul Jalil, despite his clout as the division chief, lacks the charisma to take on Anwar whereas Pirdaus cannot help but look like a loser, having lost to Dr Wan Azizah in 2004 and 2008.

But given its foregone conclusion, the focus of the by-election is no longer about who will win or lose.

Barisan’s priority is probably to choose someone who will not lose too badly. The candidate will only be a figurehead of sorts because the real fight will be between Umno and Anwar.

With Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak leading the Barisan campaign, many are bound to see it as Round 2 of Najib versus Anwar, two men whom their respective supporters regard as prime ministers-in-waiting. Round 1 was, of course, Ijok.

Permatang Pauh will be the arena for the opposing sides to argue their case, to disparage each other and to persuade their audiences on a host of issues that will go beyond the constituency and its populace.

Anwar’s bid to return to his old homeground was a strategic and pre-emptive move against what he saw as his imminent arrest. He has studied well Sun Tze’s Art of War and, as even his Umno opponents admitted, he has dictated the agenda.

“We are going to see the personalisation of a political struggle. This contest will force the nation to think and reflect on a lot of things happening around us,” said DAP strategist Liew Chin Tong.

And given that Anwar may be charged for sodomy any time from now, the Barisan may find itself in the bizarre situation of fighting a candidate who is behind bars since the alleged crime is a non-bailable offence.

It will be a fight loaded with emotional significance for Anwar. He is at a critical crossroads and he will be fighting for his political survival as well as his personal reputation.

The stakes for the Barisan are equally high and it will be giving the campaign all that it has.

This will be the mother of all by-elections.