28 Dec, 2008
Umno has already announced their candidate, so it is too late to backtrack on that. So it is now left to PAS to choose their candidate. If PAS chooses the right man then Wan Farid is dead meat. But Wan Farid’s chances can improve if PAS makes the mistake of fielding the wrong candidate.
THE CORRIDORS OF POWER
Raja Petra Kamarudin
Is the Kuala Terengganu by-election on 17 January 2009 going to be about issues or about personalities? It’s actually going to be a bit of both, with internal bickering and sabotage thrown in, on both sides of the political divide.
To understand Kuala Terengganu one must first understand the history of this town. Over 200 years, Kuala Terengganu used to be the meeting point for foreigners and traders. Most of the settlers of the town came from afar to make Kuala Terengganu their home. Even some so-called Malays are actually Chinese from the Yunan province of China. But they are not regarded as Chinese at all. Malays accept them as fellow Malays and treat them as such. And the Yunanis are no longer ‘practicing’ Chinese, being more Malay than Malays themselves; even surpassing the Babas and Nyonyas of Melaka -- who may be ‘Malay’ by customs and language but are not Muslims like the Yunanis of Terengganu.
In the 1970s, when oil was first discovered off the coast of Terengganu, Kuala Terengganu, again, saw an influx of foreigners, mostly oil industry workers and employees of Bristow Helicopters, the British helicopter company contracted by Exxon to ferry the oil rig workers to and from the oil rigs.
At that time, Kertih was still being built so Kuala Terengganu was used as the temporary centre for the oil activities. There was even one CIA man who masqueraded as an oil company man but was actually there to spy for America. Everyone knew he was CIA but no one shied away from clicking his beer glass with the overweight man with the oversized beer belly who did not at all look like the charismatic James Bond.
These ‘foreigners’, Malaysians as well as Caucasians, would frequent the Pertama Coffee House for their ‘happy hours’ and Muslim plus non-Muslim alike would get drunk and engage in the occasional bar room brawl in the Pertama, which was run by a police officer and his wife.
But the locals were not perturbed. These were, after all, ‘foreigners’. Even the Muslim-Malays were considered ‘foreigners’ since they were not local born. And as long as the ‘Anak Terengganu’ of the Muslim faith did not also get drunk in the Pertama, the locals were quite prepared to leave these outsiders to their own devices and to enjoy their ‘decadent’ lifestyles.
Such was the attitude of the Kuala Terengganu population who were prepared to live and let live, even back in the 1970s, just as long as you did not encroach into their territory and ‘import’ your ‘evil ways’ into the homes of the locals. You can do your thing very much unhindered and with not so much as raised eyebrows from the ‘Anak Terengganu’. And this can be considered unique in a state that takes Islam with much seriousness and even calls the state Terengganu Darul Iman (Terengganu the Land of the Faith).
Things have not really changed that much over 30 years. Outsiders are very much welcome in the town, although in the rest of the state the people can be very regionalistic in their ways. A Besut man (Besut is at the Kelantan-Terengganu border in the North) would find it very difficult to gain acceptance in Kemaman (at the Pahang-Terengganu border in the South), and vice versa -- in particular if it is to contest a seat in an election. But a Johor man would face no problems contesting a seat in Kuala Terengganu, and winning that seat as well.
Onn Jaafar proved this when he resigned from Umno out of protest -- when the party refused to open its doors to the non-Malays -- and he formed his own party called Parti Negara. Onn Jaafar contested the Ladang state seat in Kuala Terengganu and won. Bakar Daud too, an ex-police officer, was another outsider who held the Ladang state seat for many terms until the state fell to the opposition in 1999. If there were one seat an outsider would have no problems of winning that would be Kuala Terengganu.
There are four state seats under the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary constituency -- Bandar, Batu Burok, Ladang and Wakaf Mempelam. The Kuala Terengganu parliament seat used to be under Umno until its Member of Parliament, Razali Ismail, died on 29 November 2008. Razali was the Deputy Education Minister. But the funny thing is, while the Kuala Terengganu parliament seat was under Umno, three of the four state seats -- Batu Burok, Ladang and Wakaf Mempelam -- are under PAS. Only the Bandar state seat belongs to Barisan Nasional and even then it is under MCA and not Umno. How could Razali win the Kuala Terengganu parliament seat when three of its four state seats are under PAS?
This can be attributed to Azmi Lope, the PAS state assemblyman for Bandar who won that seat in the 1999 general election. Azmi’s and the late Razali’s wives are sisters. So many PAS supporters, in particular those aligned to Azmi, voted for Razali -- although he was Umno -- while they did not vote for Umno for the state seat. This shows that family ties and personalities still play a role in how the voters choose their candidate and sometimes the party comes second, especially in a town like Kuala Terengganu, which is considered more ‘liberal’ than the rest of the state.
Umno has already announced its candidate, Wan Ahmad Farid Wan Salleh, the one-time political secretary to Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and now a Senator and Deputy Minister of Home Affairs. Wan Farid is also the Umno Kuala Terengganu division chief. But Wan Farid is not the choice of either Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak or Terengganu Menteri Besar Ahmad Said. Ahmad Said wanted either Roslan Awang Chik or Zubir Embong to contest the seat but was overruled by Abdullah Badawi.
Wan Farid carries a lot of baggage. Wan Hisham, his brother, contested against Razali for the Umno Kuala Terengganu vice-head post, and won. Of course, with his brother as the division head it was easy for Wan Hisham to defeat Razali. Many blame the two brothers and say that they drove Razali to his death. Razali’s supporters will certainly want to make the 17 January 2009 by-election ‘payback time’. So expect an element of internal sabotage.
Roslan and Zubir are no pushovers. These two, Umno warlords from the Bakar Daud days, still have a lot of support and they will certainly want to make sure that Wan Farid does not sail through with an impressive victory. Ahmad Said, too, will want to prove that Abdullah should have listened to him and that Wan Farid is the wrong choice of candidate. We must remember that Ahmad Said is not Abdullah’s choice of Menteri Besar. Idris Jusoh was. Ahmad Said is the Agong’s choice. So we can expect Idris Jusoh to play a role in ensuring that the Menteri Besar loses the Kuala Terengganu by-election.
The opposition will have to ensure that they field the right candidate -- which will be announced on 1 January 2009. Mat Sabu is currently the hot favourite. But then he is an outsider. Umno will therefore go all out to discredit him if he is fielded in Kuala Terengganu. But will the issue of calun luar pose a serious problem to PAS? At the moment it does not appear so but it all depends on how the issue is played up, and it will certainly be played up for sure.
The second alternative will be Dr Syed Azman Syed Ahmad Nawawi. But Syed Azman is already the state assemblyman for Batu Burok and this can be used as an issue. Umno can appeal to the voters that since Syed Azman is already a wakil rakyat, while Wan Farid is not, then it is better that the seat be given to Wan Farid instead of Syed Azman. Would the Terengganu voters be prepared to make Syed Azman both a parliamentarian as well as a state assemblyman? There is no way of telling just yet.
Ahmad Said is himself not above controversy. Petronas has just built a shopping complex in Kertih that cost more than RM100 million and one of the tenants is Giant. Giant has already stocked up their hypermarket full of goods plus has hired more than 200 workers. But Ahmad Said will not allow them to open their doors for business.
Petronas tried to meet Ahmad Said to discuss the matter but the Menteri Besar wants to meet Giant and not Petronas. Giant, in turn, refuses to meet Ahmad Said and instead wants Petronas to sue the state government. According to the talk in town, Ahmad Said wants Giant to ‘donate’ a few million ringgit to Umno Terengganu’s 'war chest' before he gives them permission to start business. But none of the other Malay-owned establishments have to do the same thing so why is Giant, which is Chinese owned, subjected to this ‘donation’ rule?
PAS can play up this issue to win over the 8,000 or so Chinese voters in Kuala Terengganu. If Umno Terengganu, or Ahmad Said, is seen as racist or anti-Chinese, then this may swing the Chinese votes. And with the other racist from Penang, Ahmad Ismail, still very much in the minds of the Chinese, this stunt by Ahmad Said may yet anger the Chinese enough to vote PAS.
Bandar, which as I said is the only Barisan Nasional seat out of four state seats under the Kuala Terengganu parliamentary constituency, is under MCA because that happens to be the only seat given to the Chinese. The rest of the 31 state seats and 8 parliament seats in the state are all Umno. Therefore, if the Chinese do not give at least that one seat to MCA, then the Chinese will have absolutely no seats in Terengganu.
But that is the Bandar state seat, the solitary seat that MCA contested. The Kuala Terengganu parliamentary seat is not MCA but Umno. So there is no reason for the Chinese to be emotional about the Kuala Terengganu parliament seat, which will be Malay versus Malay and not Malay versus Chinese. Sure, the Chinese voted along racial lines when it came to the Bandar seat. That is why the Bandar seat is the only state seat that Barisan Nasional won in Kuala Terengganu. But there is no reason for the Chinese to vote Barisan Nasional when it comes to the parliament seat because whoever wins it will still not be a Chinese anyway.
And what is one more parliament seat for PAS? This will give PAS only 24 seats in total against DAP’s 28 and PKR’s 31. PAS will still be the minority and can’t form the government or even implement Hudud laws with just 24 seats. Plus, if the candidate is Mat Sabu, then one more ‘loose cannon’ can be sent to parliament to give Barisan Nasional a massive headache. So the Chinese will not see any problems with voting for PAS if the candidate is a ‘friend of the Chinese’ like Mat Sabu is known to be.
In 1999, Harun Jusoh of PAS won the Bandar seat and it was because of the Chinese votes. In 1990, the Chinese, again, voted PAS and the MCA candidate was defeated. So, many times in the past the Chinese in Kampong Cina voted PAS rather than for the Chinese candidate from MCA. The Chinese have done this before, many times, and they can do it again. They can vote PAS, especially when voting PAS does not entail ‘sacrificing’ their ‘own’ candidate from MCA.
Bandar is not just Kampong Cina, which is predominantly Chinese. It is also Losong, which is predominantly Malay, and Pulau Kambing, which is a mix of Malay and Chinese. So we need to look at Bandar beyond just the Chinese. The Malays too have a significant vote in the Bandar state seat. But, in the past, when the Malays from Losong and Pulau Kambing were split 50:50, it was the Chinese from Kampong Cina who played the role of ‘kingmaker’.
The bottom line is, the candidate matters. Field the right candidate in Kuala Terengganu and you will win. Field the wrong candidate and not only the voters will reject him or her but your own party will play a role in ensuing that he or she loses. The internal sabotage is going to be brutal, for both Umno and PAS, although more so for Umno than PAS.
PKR has a strong following in Kuala Terengganu and should not be ignored. Even DAP has a presence in Kuala Terengganu and can sway the Chinese voters. PKR and DAP are very comfortable with Mat Sabu and if he is going to be the candidate then expect very strong solidarity from Pakatan Rakyat. But if Mustafa Ali is instead going to be the candidate, then some of the PKR and DAP workers might stage a ‘go slow’ and not be too serious in their campaign.
The problem is not just PKR and DAP though. Even the ‘Young Turks’ in PAS would rather the candidate not be Mustafa Ali. They feel that Mustafa is a hindrance to Pakatan Rakyat solidarity and is from the older generation that should be reduced to an advisory role and not be too prominent on the front line.
Mustafa was also the ‘wet blanket’ who spoke out against Anwar Ibrahim’s plan to form the federal government on 16 September 2008. Many blame Mustafa for throwing a spanner in the works by announcing that the 16 September plan is Anwar’s plan and not Pakatan Rakyat’s plan. Instead of supporting the plan, Mustafa said that he did not think it can happen and has in fact not agreed to it. This sent Pakatan Rakyat into panic mode and there was even talk that PAS might team up with Umno to help prop up the Barisan Nasional government if 30 Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament cross over to Pakatan Rakyat.
Some even went so far as to accuse Mustafa of being an Umno mole whose job is to ensure that Pakatan Rakyat does not succeed in its effort to form a federal government. A lot of damage control needs to be done if Mustafa is chosen to contest the Kuala Terengganu by-election.
The matter of the missing RM7 billion oil royalty or ‘Wang Ehsan’ will also be an election issue, as will the RM300 million a year Terengganu Monsoon Cup. Wan Farid and his brother, Wan Hisham, together with Patrick Lim, have their hands dirty in this and I will be very surprised if this issue is not played up to the hilt. The Agong rejected Idris Jusoh and instead asked that Ahmad Said replace the former as Menteri Besar because of this missing RM7 billion. Even the Agong is upset. So would the Terengganu folks vote for Wan Farid, one of the four men who robbed Terengganu to the tune of RM7 billion?
Then there is the shooting of two people during the Bersih rally along the Batu Burok beach in Kuala Terengganu. It is said that Wan Farid was the man who instructed the police to clamp down on the rally and which resulted in the shooting. Wan Farid, of course, has denied this allegation but witnesses have spotted him in conference with the police just hours before the shooting. Wan Farid will be hard-pressed in washing his hands of this bloody episode along Batu Burok beach.
Kuala Terengganu is a 'must visit' come 6 January 2009 once the nominations close. Whether it is going to be a straight fight between PAS and Umno is yet to be seen. But it will be no surprise to everyone if it is a three- or four-corner fight with an ‘independent’ candidate or two entering the fray.
The Kuala Terengganu parliament seat is nobody’s seat. Neither PAS nor Umno can claim it is their seat. And Kuala Terengganu is not one seat. It is a make-up of Kampong Cina, Losong, Pulau Kambing, Ladang, Tanjong, Batu Burok, Kuala Ibai, Cabang Tiga, Wakaf Mempelam, and so on. It is actually many seats in one and a most unpredictable seat to forecast at that. I, for one, would not want to take any bets just yet. There are too many permutations with the candidate being one of the greatest factors to consider.
Umno has already announced their candidate, so it is too late to backtrack on that. So it is now left to PAS to choose their candidate. If PAS chooses the right man then Wan Farid is dead meat. But Wan Farid’s chances can improve if PAS makes the mistake of fielding the wrong candidate.
The more worrying point is, after knowing all these issues, will PAS make the right decision? If they still ignore all these factors and choose the wrong man, then many are going to come away thinking that this was done on purpose. As it is, many are suspicious of the top PAS Terengganu leadership. Talk amongst some people is that PAS many ‘throw’ this election to help Ahmad Said consolidate his position, which is under serious attack from the other factions in Umno Terengganu. In politics this is not unusual -- in that we help the weaker enemy against the stronger enemy with a view that, in the end, both enemies will be neutralised when they are equally strong.
PAS is, after all, a political party and in politics an enemy of an enemy can be your friend when it best suits you. And friends can revert to being enemies later once the situation changes. So will the Kuala Terengganu by-election be that platform for PAS to pit one Umno faction against the other? This, the people are speculating, and one wrong move from PAS will set tongues wagging and the “I told you so” will reverberate across the Kuala Terengganu river to the other side of the lavish RM60 million Crystal Mosque built by Patrick Lim, Wan Hisham, Wan Farid and Idris Jusoh at great cost to the taxpayers.
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