On verge of landslide win

On verge of landslide win
24 Aug, 2008

Permatang Pauh (Penang) by-election

Bookies offer 5-to-1, and all signs indicate a runaway win for him on Tuesday's by-election that could bring him closer to power.

Kuala Lumpur bookies are offering odds of 3-1 for de facto opposition Anwar Ibrahim winning with a majority of 15,000 votes in Tuesday's by-election in Permatang Pauh (northern Penang), Reuters reported (http://asia.news.yahoo.com/080822/3/3o0e7.html ).

These illegal bookies reckon that the charismatic politician will win by a big majority in his home constituency despite his pending prosecution for sodomy - and that the real money will be on how many votes he wins by. Some observers, however, believe his margin of victory will be slightly reduced because of the charge and vote-buying.

Many Malaysians are hardened gamblers and illegal betting syndicates in Malaysia and elsewhere in Asia won notoriety around the world over attempts to fix international football matches over the past year.

Anwar hopes winning the by-election and returning to parliament after a 10-year absence will be the first steps towards ousting the ruling coalition which has led Malaysia since independence from Britain in 1957.

Bookies have posted odds of 5-1 for a majority of 20,000.

"He (Anwar) will win for sure because everybody knows the sodomy case is just a trick by the government and it's his home ground," said one bookie, who asked not to be identified.

" My guess is the majority will be slightly reduced because of dirty politics but some of my customers seem to be too idealistic and maybe they want some change in government since they are asking to bet on higher majorities," he said.

Anwar, who has been jailed before for sodomy and corruption and was barred from office until April this year, is fighting a charge that he had sex with a 23-year-old male aide.

Another illegal bookie, who has collected about M$2,000,000 worth of bets, said: "We need to factor in that the government will spend a lot of money, trying to buy over voters, and it's a three-way fight, which is always a spoiler".

Anwar is running against a candidate from the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition and another independent candidate.

Asian Wall Street Journal
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121934360665860965.html?mod=rss_whats_news_asia

Meanwhile, the WSJ reported (excerpts): "..Every night, thousands of supporters turn out here among the rice fields and industrial parks of northern Malaysia as Mr. Anwar campaigns for a parliamentary seat in a by-election Tuesday. At rally after rally, Mr. Anwar stirs the crowds with vows to topple the National Front government and pursue an agenda of political and economic overhauls..

.. His pending prosecution makes it is possible that Mr. Anwar, who is free on bail while awaiting trial, could win next week's election only to lose his seat if he is later convicted of sodomy.

Mr. Anwar's government-backed opponent, Arif Shah Omar Shah, attracts much smaller audiences at his rallies and spends much of his time in meetings with his entourage of campaign workers...

The size of Mr. Anwar's expected triumph will be watched closely, however; should he poll fewer votes than his wife did, the National Front would trumpet the result as a moral victory. In an interview, Mr. Anwar acknowledges he needs a convincing win "to send the message that there is a strong alternative agenda to that of the government."

Getting elected could prove to be an easier task for Mr. Anwar than maneuvering his unwieldy opposition alliance into power - even if he manages to avoid being convicted of sodomy.

The Malaysian Insider rerported that government politicians had been making ther sodomy issue the main tool to defect Anwar, including getting his alleged victim, Saiful - Anwar's one-time aide - to take an oath that Anwar had sodomised him.

However, they have lately conceded that this strategy is doing little damage to Anwar, and have reverted to campaigning on local issues.

Voters: Teaching BN a lesson

Reported well-known blogger Anil Netto (http://anilnetto.com/democracy/landslide-win-for-pakatan/ ):
" I was on the mainland yesterday and ran into a few people. From my conversations with them, it sounded like quite a few people were determined to teach the BN a lesson in the by-election.

The Christians are utterly disgusted with the “show cause” letter to The Herald. They are definitely not impressed. Many of them are urging their friends and family members to vote for the opposition.

Najib and Khairy’s presence - and Saiful’s via video - in Permatang Pauh could prove to be counterproductive, to put it politely. (Najib = Deputy Prime Minister Najib bin Abdul Rajak; Khairy is PM Abdullah Badawi's son-in-law).

I ran into a DAP grassroots worker and he said that they are going all out to ensure the BN candidate loses his deposit - and he seemed confident it was within reach! (That remains to be seen.)

A Malay petrol pump attendant in neighbouring Butterworth told me that there was a great need for check and balance at the national level...

One veteran KL-based journalist warned about the digital divide among rural voters who rely heavily on the mainstream media for their news. These older voters especially, he said, could be influenced by Saiful’s (sodomy) oath-taking and challenge to Anwar to swear by the Koran.

But the most telling problem for the BN is its utter inability to reinvent itself and introduce meaningful reforms after its major setback in the March general election. They are still out of touch with reality or rather the people’s reality on the ground...