Do they want Anwar as PM?

Do they want Anwar as PM?

19 Aug, 2008

Privately, leaders from both parties remain sceptical that Anwar would be able to muster sufficient support from defectors to effect the change.

TODAYonline

The stage has been set for Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s return to national politics.

Few would bet against him winning in the Permatang Pauh by-election scheduled for Aug 26. In fact, the more pertinent question is: how large will the margin be?

Even the ruling party Umno has thrown in the towel, with senior Umno leaders noting that any erosion of Anwar’s wife Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Ismail’s 13,398-vote majority, secured at the March general election, would in itself be a major feat.

This concession is telling, for Umno very rarely starts an election campaign by making public admissions of impending defeat.

Indeed, even in Kelantan, a Pas stronghold for as long as anyone can remember, Umno has always been upbeat about its chances during elections.

The fact that the yardstick is set at merely cutting the existing majority indicates a realisation within Umno circles, that even though this by-election might well prove critical for them in their attempt to stop Anwar’s march to the pinnacle, his victory will very likely be a massive landslide.

While the results of the by-election may be a foregone conclusion, what could follow has everyone sitting on the edge of their seats — Will Anwar eventually be convicted of the sodomy charges against him, and find himself back in prison? Will he be able to deliver on his word that on Sept 16 he would be able to form a new government with himself as the new prime minister? Will the opposition Pakatan Rakyat alliance remain intact?

To be sure, the immediate obstacle for Anwar is the sodomy charge hanging over his head. With regards to this, he has no lack of popular sympathy. If anything, the man-on-the-street laments the “lack of imagination” displayed by elements intent on blocking the former deputy prime minister’s return to politics (similar charges were levelled against Anwar 10 years ago).

Despite that, the accuser, Mohd Saiful Bakhari Azlan’s latest move to escalate the situation, by swearing on the Quran at the national mosque, has turned all eyes on the self-proclaimed prime minister-in-waiting.

Though Pas clerics such as Datuk Nik Aziz Nik Mat, Harun Din and Datuk Abdul Hadi Awang made moves to dismiss Saiful’s act as one that did not accord with Islamic teaching, at the grassroots level, people are looking for Anwar to follow suit to dispel any suspicions.

Chief among those calling for Anwar to make his own oath is none other than his former boss, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

If Anwar survives these charges, the path to the premiership looks clearer — or does it?

Notwithstanding his confident proclamations, his success or failure will turn on the extent to which his ambitions enjoy full support from his Pakatan allies.

The leaders of Pas and the DAP have made clear that their respective parties intend to do what they can to ensure. Anwar wins in Permatang Pauh and becomes the leader of the opposition.

Given the strength of the Pas and DAP election campaign machinery, particularly in Penang, this is likely to cause much concern for Umno and Datuk Arif Shah Omar Shah, the candidate of the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition, who may well be swept away by the winds of change that have been blowing since March 8.

Whether the DAP and Pas are willing to back Anwar as prime minister in the event of a change of government however, is a different matter altogether.

Privately, leaders from both parties remain sceptical that Anwar would be able to muster sufficient support from defectors to effect the change.

Even if he did, Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng has warned that the DAP will not recognise crossovers if they were enticed by material rewards.

The message from Pas is even clearer. At the Islamic party’s recently-concluded general assembly, the Dewan Ulama (Ulama Council) suggested that party president Abdul Hadi could be Pas’s preferred prime minister should the Pakatan come to power.

Abdul Hadi was non-committal when asked if he supported Anwar’s quest for the top job. While both parties are committed to the Pakatan for now, certain quarters in both parties are concerned about the implications should Anwar become prime minister.

While Pas fears a possible dilution of the Malay-Muslim agenda under Anwar, some in the DAP fear the opposite, namely, that Anwar might return to the Malay agenda that he pushed so strongly in his days with Abim (the Islamic Youth Movement of Malaysia) and, later, Umno.

For these DAP and Pas members, this unease is rooted in their respective experiences with Anwar, particularly given his role in events such as Ops Lallang in 1987. (Some argue that it was he who ignited the controversal debate over Chinese education that culminated in the arrest of more than 100 opposition politicians and activists in the internal security operation termed Ops Lallang.)

Clearly, for some in the DAP and Pas, historical memory plays a part in their assessment of Anwar, and they will not be easily assuaged.

In other words, even as Anwar labours to secure the necessary crossovers, there may well be jockeying taking place within the Pakatan itself.

We have already witnessed the muzakarah (dialogue) between Umno and the Pas. No doubt these talks have not amounted to anything. Yet, they are still indicative of a degree of restlessness in the Islamic party in response to Anwar’s ambitions.

As Anwar manoeuvres closer to his dream, it would not be beyond the imagination to see Pas or DAP respond by recalibrating their commitment to the Pakatan accordingly.

There is little doubt that as the leader of the opposition, DAP and Pas need Anwar. Without him, it is arguable if DAP would have won Penang at the March general election, or if Pas could secure three menteri besar positions.

He has single-handedly united an erstwhile disparate opposition in a manner never before seen in the country, and in so doing has fundamentally transformed Malaysian politics.

Yet, the question that the leaders and members of DAP and PAS will be asking themselves, nonetheless, is whether they want Anwar as Prime Minister.