By Liew Chin Tong
JULY 20 - Many in Umno still believe that the March 8 election result was an accidental exception.
Few bother to take a look at how Malaysia, Malay community in particular, has changed over the last few decades, and its corollary political ramification for Umno.
To Umno's true believers, eliminating Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim from active politics, giving more money to the Class F contractors and the kampung, and "strengthening the party's organization" will bring Umno back to its preeminent position in Malaysian politics.
Last week's twists-and-turns of event surrounding Anwar is likely a manifestation of clashes among Umno top brass. In a rare abnormality, Anwar was implicitly treated as the alternative prime minister during a live televised debate on July 15.
But, in hindsight, a massive lockdown of Kuala Lumpur by 1,600 policemen a day earlier is said to be linked to an attempt to arrest Anwar, to deprive the former deputy prime minister his only positive appearance on national television in a decade.
The subsequent highhanded arrest of Anwar pulled Malaysia back to the old world where Umno equates the state and, in this paradigm, the Opposition is thus the enemy of the state - to be crushed with brute force as and when Umno is threatened.
Rarely did these Umno old hands realise that while Anwar hastened the pace of political change and sharpened political debates, demographic transformation drives long term changes that would eventually eclipse Umno.
With or without Anwar, Umno the rural party par excellence is finding it hard to survive the urbanisation process and an averagely young Malay population.In 60 years of existence, Umno is unbeatable because of its very efficient rural machinery that blurs the line between the party and the government.
In the kampung, the headman is also Umno branch chairman. His wife is typically the branch wanita chief and occasionally, his son the youth chief. A long standing ketua sepuluh system, which requires an Umno member to "look after" 10 households in his neighbourhood provides the base for Umno's continuous electoral success.
In a typical kampung, the village head cum Umno branch chairman would know everyone by name; his wife may even know the names of the villagers' cats.
It is difficult not to support Umno in such setting especially all patronage is usually channelled through the headmen. Only a handful staunch Pas faithful would go against the tide and risk being ostracised.But nearly 40 years since the introduction of the New Economic Policy, which in part facilitated an unprecedented urbanisation of the Malays, two thirds of Malaysia's population now lives in urban centres.
Normally in the hectic and often tough city existence, few urbanites know their neighbours, rendering Umno's social control method redundant.
As of the March 8 general election, of the 10 million or so total registered voters on the electoral roll, around 5.7 million are Malays. Umno claims a membership of 3.2 million, of whom 2.8 million are voters.
Theoretically, so long as all Umno members vote for Barisan Nasional, with a small group of swing voters, the party would claim a majority. Of course in real life, the membership number may have been inflated and not all would vote for Umno.
But, more importantly, in this country which average age is 22 years old, there are 4 million Malays who have yet to register themselves on to the electoral roll. Eighty per cent of them are below thirty years old. And, 80 per cent of them are urbanites.
Further, many Malays who are voter in the kampung are actually living in urban area. They only return to the village when they retire, or during festive seasons, or once every five years when election is held.
As long as the Umno old timers are still clueless about urban politics and not knowing how to engage the youth, its demise is just a matter of time.
(Liew Chin Tong is the DAP Member of Parliament for Bukit Bendera.)
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