Friday, July 4, 2008

Brinksmanship in polarized Malaysia

Brinksmanship in polarized Malaysia
By Anil Netto

PENANG - Another day, another explosive allegation in politically polarized Malaysia. Opposition icon Anwar Ibrahim dropped a bombshell on Thursday when he alleged in a conference that Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Najib Razak knew personally a Mongolian woman who was mysteriously murdered in 2006.

Najib's confidant, Abdul Razak Baginda, along with two special forces personnel, stand as the accused in the highly watched murder trial, which some believe could have major political implications for the country. Anwar's press statement drew on a sworn statement made by former police officer-turned-private eye P Balasubramaniam who was hired by Abdul Razak.

The private investigator alleged in his statement that it was Najib who introduced the Mongolian interpreter Altantuya Shariibuu to Abdul Razak and further charged that the Mongolian national was promised a commission of US$500,000 for assisting in an apparently dodgy submarine deal in Paris, France.

Popular blogger Raja Petra claimed earlier in a statement that Najib's wife Rosmah and two others were at the murder scene the night the woman was blown up and killed through the use of explosives. Several days after that allegation was made public, Najib vehemently denied that he knew the woman while his wife said she was not involved in the crime. Analysts however have noted that neither of the deputy premier or his spouse have launched defamation charges in their own defense.

The politically-charged allegations come hot on the heels of the sodomy charges lodged against Anwar over the weekend, in what initially looked like a rerun of the former deputy premier's political ordeal in 1998 when he was ousted from power and later imprisoned for six years on what he has maintained were trumped up charges. Over the weekend Anwar took refuge at the Turkish Embassy in Kuala Lumpur, claiming the government had plans to assassinate him.

He has since fought back with a vengeance, lodging a police report on Tuesday against the attorney general and the police chief for their alleged role in suppressing a police investigation that showed the then chief of police had in 1998 assaulted a blindfolded Anwar, causing him serious spinal injuries.

With Thursday's press statement, Anwar is firmly on the political offensive, lobbing the accusatory ball back into the government's court. One political commentator at the big-bang conference told Asia Times Online that if Anwar's latest allegations against the deputy premier and presumed successor to embattled Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi are true, "Najib is gone and the government could crumble."

While that prediction may for now be overly dire, Malaysian politics has entered a volatile new era of political brinkmanship. And there is much more at stake in the struggle than just Anwar's or Najib's political reputations. The growing tensions symbolize a larger political struggle between old and new political forces, with a popular movement for change aggressively challenging half a century of United Malays Nasional Organization (UMNO)-led rule.

The popular movement and Anwar worked together to deliver the biggest political setback to UMNO and its ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition in nearly four decades at general elections held in March earlier this year. Opposition parties stormed ahead and captured close to half of the popular vote, gained control of five of the federation's 13 states, swept parliamentary seats in the capital Kuala Lumpur and denied the BN its coveted two-thirds parliamentary majority.

Old face, new era
Anwar has been the most visible face of that movement, though it is broad-based and most significantly transcends ethnic divisions. The old UMNO-led order, steeped as it is in the ruling coalition's tired race-based model of politicking, has been slow to respond and until now seemed powerless to stop the Anwar-led opposition from picking up the 30 defections it needs from BN parliamentarians to seize power by September 16 - deadline the opposition alliance has set for itself.

Powerless, except for perhaps halting Anwar dead in his tracks through new criminal charges. The widely presumed to be trumped up charges harken back to the UMNO's bad old tactics, if indeed the ruling party is behind the sodomy allegations, which were lodged by a 23-year-old aide against Anwar.

Reform-minded Malaysians, on the other hand, were well ahead of opposition politicians in articulating their demands for democratic change. They have boldly crossed the UMNO-promoted racial divide and are challenging the BN coalition on a wide range of issues, including a fast-rising cost of living, a growing divide between rich and poor, endemic corruption, a spiraling crime rate and a widespread lack of confidence in democratic institutions.

When opposition politicians first hesitated to bridge ideological barriers and cooperate ahead of the general election, popular sentiment on the ground pressured them to come together. For his part, Anwar played an instrumental role in cobbling together the so-called People's Alliance that includes his own People's Justice Party (PKR), the Democratic Action Party (DAP), the Islamic Party (Pas), with even candidates of the yet-to-be-registered Socialist Party of Malaysia.

A former deputy premier and finance minister while an UMNO stalwart, Anwar is in the process of redefining his political legacy as an agent of democratic change. He has played a steadying role in stitching together various state government coalitions, ironing out competing interests and setting up a high-level policy steering council among the alliance's component opposition parties.

Under Malaysia's highly centralized political system, the federal government holds enormous powers and huge federal funds, which make the various state governments financial resources appear puny by comparison. Oppressive laws in place aren't likely to be repealed any time soon given the ruling coalition's majority in parliament.

Meanwhile, politicians in resource-rich states like Sabah, including those from the ruling coalition, have reasserted local demands, including a call to increase in their current oil royalty from 5% to 20% to address badly needed poverty alleviation and development needs. Their newfound confidence and voice reflects a questioning of the current state of federal-state relations and could herald a move towards greater decentralization and local democratization, some contend.

At the same time, a 41% oil price hike has fueled considerable disenchantment with the UMNO-led government in the politically significant capital city. A major oil price protest is planned for July 6 which some fear could provide pretext for the government to clamp down. Many expect an economic slowdown in the second half of this year to coincide with ratcheted up political tensions.

Political analysts believe the sodomy charges against Anwar, and his retaliatory response on Thursday against Najib, are likely only the tip of the iceberg of the politicized accusations and counter-accusations to come in the weeks and months ahead. What is clear to see is that Malaysian politics has entered a volatile and possibly destabilizing new era.

Anil Netto is a Penang-based writer.

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