God may feature less in America’s election—but more elsewhere

The culture wars go global

God may feature less in America’s election—but more elsewhere, says John Micklethwait

One of the most remarkable changes in American politics in the past half-century has been the rise of the “values voter”. Religious conservatives have helped make the culture wars a part of American politics. The easiest way to tell whether a white American is a Democrat or a Republican has not been to ask him how much money he has but how often he goes to church. Over half of George Bush’s votes in 2004 came from white evangelicals.

In 2008 the culture wars may well count for much less. Even evangelicals are fed up with the Republicans’ incompetence and sleaze. And most of the Republicans on show present problems for the religious right, whether by their attitude (irreverent John McCain), their liberal views (Rudy Giuliani, who supports abortion rights) or their choice of religion (Mitt Romney, who is a Mormon). Meanwhile, the leading Democrats have toned down their side of the culture wars, talking less about “reproductive rights” and more about their own religious credentials.

The idea of the “values” vote evaporating into this mushy centre will annoy the old warhorses of the religious right. Do not entirely rule out hard-core religious conservatives running a third-party candidate. But that reeks of desperation and would surely help a Democrat into the White House. God will probably not be as omnipresent in the 2008 presidential election as he has been recently.

Religious belief is growing—especially outside western Europe

Expect instead to hear more talk of God in politics outside America. The culture wars that have dominated American politics are gradually going global. That is partly because politics in many countries is following the American model. With most of the big economic debates settled (witness the minimal difference between Conservative and Labour spending plans in Britain) politics is focusing on cultural issues—such as the importance of the family in society. That is giving a fresh role to the West’s traditional cultural warrior, the Catholic church, but also to younger evangelical outfits, many of them American imports. Focus on the Family, the heart of America’s religious right, already has sister outfits in 54 countries.

Second, religious belief is growing—especially outside western Europe. And most of the faiths doing well are of the hotter sort. Above all, religion is becoming a matter of choice not inheritance—and once you choose to be a born-again Christian, a fundamentalist Muslim or a committed Hindu, you are more likely to make a fuss about religion in public life.

Thus, if India goes to the polls in 2008, its possible nuclear deal with America may be overshadowed by the fury about a bridge that the god Ram and a team of monkeys built to Sri Lanka: the secular Congress party has talked about blowing a hole in the bridge (which it argues is a natural ridge and mainly underwater) to make room for shipping. In Turkey there will be a clash over the constitution: the Islamist AK party wants to get rid of the ban on headscarves at universities. South Korea’s Protestant megachurches have formed a New Right Movement partly to demand a tougher approach to North Korea.

Reasons to wage war

Many of the issues in the global culture wars will be familiar ones, such as abortion and gay marriage. Three new ones could emerge on the global scale. The first is the United Nations—long a target for American conservatives because of its ungodly ways (in the “Left Behind” series, the Antichrist returns as the UN secretary-general). The second is cloning—a cause that unites anti-abortion activists with the wider chorus of believers who think science is now playing with the unknown. And the last is the environment—or “creation care”, as religious people like to call it. The idea that man is ruining God’s dominion could yet become the biggest culture war of all.

John Micklethwait: editor-in-chief, The Economist