Many uncertainties in the horizon for post-election Malaysia

Many uncertainties in the horizon for post-election Malaysia

(Channel News Asia) - Malaysia's Barisan Nasional (BN) – ruling with a slim majority – is still coming to terms with the reality that federal-state relations will never be the same again after losing five states to the opposition.

And now, there are concerns looming on the horizon that the opposition might just win parliament if more politicians cross over.

The BN has 140 seats or 63.1 percent of the total number of 222 seats. It garnered 4.082 million votes during the election or 50.6 percent of the popular vote.

Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR or People's Justice Party) adviser Anwar Ibrahim said he would have enough support to topple Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's government before September 16 as his party needed just 30 more members to gain a simple majority in parliament.

The United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) and the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) are the three leading race-based parties within the ruling coalition.

But now, under intense scrutiny, they are undergoing serious soul-searching, asking themselves if they can move away from their entrenched way of doing things.

More importantly, they wonder if the leadership is prepared to make painful adjustments in order to strengthen the BN coalition, such as merging into a multiracial party.

Muhyiddin Yassin, Minister for International Trade and Industry, UMNO Vice President, said: "There is some sort of procedures in how the elections were done because there is a certain quota system that was imposed. I personally feel that this need not be necessary anymore because I would like to see the party go back to the very basic issue of democracy - whoever wants to contest, they can contest.

"Why should there be any new constraints to fulfil certain quota system to allow you to offer yourself for service? But again, whether this can be addressed within the next few months before the elections, I'm not too sure. But of course, beyond the issue, a lot of people feel there is a need to re-look into leadership, whether the present leadership is sort of acceptable, whether the present leadership is able to continue and deliver what is needed...

"Maybe there is a need to reinvent the relationship within the component parties, that UMNO should not act on behalf of the Malays, MCA talk for the interest of the Chinese... we need to address issues not along purely racial lines, but across cultural, ethnic groups."

Ong Tee Keat, Transport Minister, MCA Vice President, said: "It's time for us to project a multiracial outlook – when we serve the public, we serve the people, we never ask whether or not they are our target group or if they are affiliated to our own party... because in our daily practice, in our daily day-to-day handling of people's problems, whether you are legislators or you are just party workers, you don't look at colours - that is the first crucial step that would enable us to project a more multiracial outlook."

But political analysts said race-based politics is so entrenched that it would take time for them to move out of their racial compartments.

However, time may not be on their side as opposition parties like Keadilan, Democratic Action Party (DAP) and even Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) are embracing multiracial politics in one form or another, making the need for change all the more pressing for UMNO.

As the Malay party goes through a process of internal change, party leadership succession remains crucial and the opposition is watching the developments closely.

Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, Political Secretary to PKR Chief Minister, Selangor State Assemblyman, said: "Currently the government is actually – to a certain extent – accepting the reality of the results of the election...

"Our fear is that if we get someone who is not as tolerant of the reality of democracy – and this has happened before in the 1986 Operasi Lalang when a lot of opposition parliamentarians were arrested – that would pull us back to the previous situation where BN is again so dominant and there is little room for us to implement change.

"So we think that if we can find a way to turn around the results by getting people to jump over to us through transparent processes, not by promising money or anything, but by addressing their interests, I believe that is more important."

So, should Malaysians be bracing themselves for a new dawn or is there trouble on the horizon?

Marina Mahathir, columnist and blogger, said: "It's too early to say it's the new dawn. I think it's still the night before. Let's see, let's just wait and see. I don't think that everything is quite settled yet.

"Certainly, UMNO elections is going to be a factor. Keadilan says they are going to take over by September, whether that is really going to happen or not, that is another issue. How they're going to do it is a big issue for many people. A lot of people don't like the idea of crossovers, they think it's unethical. So you know there are still these big issues."

Even if Mr Anwar does pull it off and forms the next government, political watchers said it is likely to be a weak one with many inexperienced people being thrust into office.

Until that scenario unfolds, all that Malaysians can do for now is to watch and wait. But they won't be alone, as the international community will also be tuning in to see how the political drama plays out.