14 May, 2008
(The Malaysian Insider) - The idea is not as far-fetched as it seems. Umno politicians in Sabah say that the former deputy minister has been promised the second most powerful position in Malaysia if the Barisan Nasional government is replaced by Pakatan Rakyat.
For his part, the brother of Sabah Chief Minister Musa Aman must set the ball rolling by leading the crossover of some Sabah BN MPs to the Opposition. This attractive offer was made to Anifah by Pakatan Rakyat after he turned down the deputy minister’s position in Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s government.
Anifah, 54, felt that he should have been made a full minister, possibly Rural Development Minister, given his seniority and the contribution of Umno Sabah to BN’s victory in Election 2008. The BN leadership knew that Anifah could stoke the fire of discontent in Sabah and attempted to ring fence him and his potentially divisive views about the relationship between the Federal government and the East Malaysian state.
During a supreme council meeting last month, an Umno minister lashed out at Musa, telling him to keep his brother under control. But this minister – who will not find any support from Sabah during the party elections in December - failed to realise the depth of dissatisfaction among Sabah MPs over a laundry list of issues.
Among them:
• More positions in the Cabinet and more senior portfolios for Sabah MPs. Sabah Umno cannot understand why Tan Sri Muhammad Muhammad Taib was made the Rural Development Minister and Selangor got four ministerial position when he did not contest the election and the richest state fell to the Opposition.
• The channelling of more government funds directly to Sabah state agencies and not through the Federal Development Department.
• The setting up of a Royal Commission of Inquiry to investigate the alleged issuance of ICs to illegal immigrants and a more concerted effort to tackle the illegal immigrant problem. This issue is being pushed by Kadazandusun political parties such as Tan Sri Bernard Dompok’s UPKO. The Kadazandusuns feels that the influx of Indonesians and Filipinos has pushed them further to the edges of Sabah society.
• An increase in the oil royalty payment from 5 per cent to 20 per cent.
• The abolishment of the Cooking Oil Subsidy Scheme, where palm oil planters in the state pay a levy which subsidises cooking oil for the whole country.
• The encroachment of the Federal governments and its agencies into areas which were traditionally under the power of Sabah.
De facto Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim has been able to mine this well of discontent. He has promised more positions for Sabahans if Pakatan Rakyat come to power and has reached out to politicians from various component parties in the state.
He knows that Dompok is not pleased with his portfolio as the Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department and that Datuk Yong Teck Lee is upset after his request to contest the Kota Kinabalu seat was rebuffed by the BN leadership.
He knows that the Kadazandusuns are worried that slowly but surely their position in Sabah is being eroded, and reached out to PBS’s Edmund Chong during a lunch meeting.
But his chosen two are Anifah and Datuk Ghapur Salleh, another Umno MP who turned down the deputy minister’s position. Anwar knows that both of them have some influence in Sabah politics and may be able to drive a wedge between MPs in the state and the Barisan Nasional.
So why hasn’t Anifah or Ghapur made a move to cross over yet? Anifah has told his close circle of friends that he does not want to undermine his brother by being the first the switch allegiance. Then there is the more vexing problem of perception versus reality.
Anifah and others are afraid that they may be left stranded if only a small number of BN MPs cross over. A Sabah politician with close ties to Anifah told The Malaysian Insider: “At the moment, there is no confidence that Anwar can get 30 MPs to join Pakatan Rakyat. So for Anifah, it is better to move only when there is some momentum. Otherwise, he will end up with nothing.’’
This appears to be the same approach the SAPP and a clutch of other BN politicians in Sabah are taking. They want to see whether Abdullah can ride out the challenges in Umno and remain as PM. They want to put their demands on the table and extract the maximum from Abdullah, knowing that he is weak.
If their demands are not met by a certain deadline, they will have a legitimate reason to leave the BN. Then it will not be a crossover but an exodus from a coalition that no longer has the interest of Sabah at heart.
Yong said as much when speaking to reporters on Tuesday. “I don't think tomorrow or in the next matter of days you find flocks of MPs jumping, I don't think so, but it is also my view that even though in the short term there is no crossover, we cannot rule out the possibility that sometime in the future, a matter of weeks or months, that there will be a sudden crossover," he said.
The feeling among BN politicians is that Musa Aman still has control over the majority of Umno MPs in the state and that PBS led by Joseph Pairin Kitingan is with Abdullah. Still, Anifah, Ghapur and Yong will be able to persuade 8 others to join them if they decide to leave BN.
So what can Abdullah do to prevent the inevitable cross over from happening?
Umno politicians say that he has to assure Umno MPs in Sabah that they will be rewarded with at least 2 more ministerial positions when the Cabinet is reshuffled. Currently, only one of the 3 ministerial positions belongs to Sabah Umno.
He will also have to appoint Yong as a senator and give Sabah and Sarawak much larger allocations in the Budget, which will be unveiled in August. He may also have to consider giving Sabah the RM9 billion the state needs to implement the Sabah Corridor initiative.
But entertaining calls for political autonomy will put him in dangerous territory. For Anifah and his friends, it's only a waiting game.
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