Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Shifting sands of Umno politics: Change vs decorum

Shifting sands of Umno politics: Change vs decorum
KUALA LUMPUR, April 16 — Last Thursday, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin sat down to an interview with Mingguan Malaysia, bared his soul, and talked about the need for a quick transition of power. He feared that if the party did not move quick enough it would lose further ground and could lose the ultimate prize – the mandate to rule Malaysia.

The Mingguan Malaysia reporters were chuffed. They knew they had a solid interview, something which would be talked about. Muhyiddin would become the most senior Umno politician to suggest that Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi had over power quickly.

Only problem was 24 hours later, Johor Umno said that it would support Abdullah and would endorse him if he decided to defend his position as party president at the party polls in Deecember. Also, the PM said that he would discuss the transition of power with Najib after the party elections.

This turn of events stumped the journalists from Mingguan Malaysia. They felt that the interview would not carry the same punch, now that the succession plan seemed a bit more structured. They also believed that Muhyiddin would want the piece yanked out, given the position taken by Johor Umno.

To their surprise, the party vice-president was quite insistent that the piece be published. This is just one of the goings-on behind the scenes which make predicting the political scenario in Umno a hazardous task. Alliances and allegiance are evolving constantly as party leaders and warlords attempt to position themselves for the post-Abdullah era.

Some of them believe that speaking out against Abdullah and pushing for his exit is the best policy at a time when there is anger towards the leadership over the loss of four states and two-third control of Parliament. Others feel that party decorum should be maintained and Abdullah should be allowed to set his own timetable for departure. Muhyiddin falls into the first category and Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak fits into the second category.

In the present climate, it is tougher being in the second group. In fact, it can be a political liability to be sticking to the official line. That is why some of Najib’s supporters are restless, wondering whether the deputy prime minister’s reticence is hurting his image among the rank-and-file.

They wish that he would be a bit more assertive about a timetable for the transition of power. But it is unlikely that any outside pressure will force Najib to change his approach. There has been some pressure from parties who say that they are acting with the knowledge of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Najib knows that if he starts dancing to the tune set by others, he may not be allowed to govern the country effectively even when he becomes the party president and prime minister. This is especially so with talk that Dr Mahathir wants a council of elders to be set up to advice the party president.

He also knows that in the minds of most party members, they view him as the man who should replace Abdullah. This was clear during close-door meetings in Kedah, Perak, Penang and Johor.

In contrast, Muhyiddin is a shoo-in for the number two position in the party. But given the age difference between Najib and Muhyiddin, it is almost certain that the latter would have to kiss his hopes of becoming the PM goodbye if he accepts the succession plan as envisaged by Abdullah.

He cannot afford to be still or patient. He is auditioning for a higher position in the party. And it is not only Abdullah’s supporters who are watching his every move. So is Najib’s.

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